摘要
随着我国人口的持续增长,粮食需求呈现刚性增长;而随着工业化、城镇化的快速发展,非农业建设用地不断增加,我国的耕地供给不断减少。未来一段时期,我国将面临越来越大的粮食短缺问题,保障粮食安全面临着严峻的挑战。正是在这样的情况下,本文探讨了粮食的内涵介绍了我国粮食需求的构成情况;采用GARCH模型、ARMA模型对我国未来的粮食供需情况进行了预测。通过对近年来的数据分析发现确实存在粮食短缺,并在此基础上提出了保持合理的粮食进口规模与进出口品种结构、重视和发展本国粮食生产、搞活粮食流通体制的政策建议。
The continuous growth of China＇s population is making its food demand growth more and more rigid; while the rapid development of industrialization and urbanization is resulting in a rapid increase of the non-agricultural construction land and thus decrease of the arable land. For a period of time in the future, China will face an increasingly serious food shortage, and its food security is facing the same challenges. It is in consideration of such a background that this paper first investigates the connotation of food and the composition of China＇s food demand, and then applies GARCH model and ARMA model to make a forecast of the future status of China＇ s food demand and supply. Via the analysis of recent data, this paper did find a food shortage of China, and on the basis of it proposes several policy recommendations consisting of maintaining a reasonable scale of food import and product structure of food import and export, concentrating on and developing national food production and livening the food circulation system.
出处
《农业现代化研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第3期277-280,共4页
Research of Agricultural Modernization
关键词
粮食供需
预测
粮食流通
扩大生产
food supply and demand
forecast
food circulation
production expansion
