摘要
手足口病是一种由肠道病毒引起的常见传染病。自从1981年上海地区首次报道该病以来,手足口的流行范围在我国逐步扩大,造成了严重的公共卫生问题。我们根据手足口病在不同人群之间的流动关系,以常微分方程作为建模工具,构建手足口病传播的动力学模型。通过参数调整和模型求解,讨论了手足口病的平衡点和稳定性,得出疾病传播阈值,从而进行疾病流行趋势的预测以及对各种具体防控措施的模拟和评价。
Hand-foot-and-mouth disease（ HFMD） is a common infectious disease caused by human enterovirus. Since the first case of HFMD was reported in Shanghai 1981,the magnitude of the epidemic has been extended to many other regions and resulted in a serious problem of publich health. Based on the flow relationship of HFMD among different populations,we took ODE as a modeling tool to build the dynamic model of the spread of HFMD. By solving the model and adjusting the parameter,the balance point and stability are discussed and disease transmission threshold can be obtained,which is conducive to the prediction of the epidemic trend and the simulation and evaluation on various specific control measures.
出处
《生物医学工程研究》
2014年第1期35-38,共4页
Journal Of Biomedical Engineering Research
关键词
手足口病
流行规律
数学模型
平衡点
稳定性
Hand-foot-mouth disease（HFMD）
Epidemic law
Mathematical model
Balance point
Stability
