摘要
为掌握洞头大型藻类多年来固碳量的变化规律,对其固碳量做出准确预测,以1991—2011年洞头主要大型藻类紫菜、羊栖菜的产量为基础,对其固碳量进行了核算,2004年固碳量最高达3650.08 t/a,1991年固碳量最低为278.08 t/a,平均固碳量为1875.33 t/a。在核算的其固碳量的基础上建立了ARIMA(0,1,3)模型,并对固碳量进行了拟合及预测研究。结果显示:所建模型的残差序列为白噪声,用模型拟合1996—2011年洞头大藻固碳量,相对误差最大6.39%,最小0.75%,均在10%以内,拟合效果好,是一种短期预测精度较高的预测模型。经预测2012—2014年3个年度的洞头大藻固碳量为3697.21 t、3570.50 t、3773.32 t,表明未来3年洞头的大藻固碳量总体上呈上升趋势。大藻养殖的碳汇渔业具有巨大的经济效益、生态效益和社会效益,建议构建政府激励措施及机制,加强政策引导,创新渔业发展模式,促进大藻养殖碳汇渔业的健康发展。
In order to grasp change regulation of macroscopic algae carbon sink capacity in Dongtou County for years and to predict accurately, the carbon sink capacity of macroscopic algae in Dongtou was primarily estimated based on the major macroscopic algae yield of Laver and Sargassum fusiform from 1991 to 2011, the highest year was in 2004（3650.08 t/a）, the lowest year was in 1991（278.08 t/a）, the average carbon sink capacity was 1875.33 t/a. ARIMA（0,1,3） model building was based on the carbon sink capacity of macroscopic algae in Dongtou. And the carbon sink capacity was identified, simulated and predicted. The results showed that, the residual error of ARIMA（0,1,3） model were all the white noise series. The carbon sink capacity of Macroscopic algae in Dongtou from 1996 to 2011was tested with this model, the highest relative error was 6.39%, the lowest relative error was 0.75%, all the relative error was below 10%, the fitting effect of the modelwas obvious. The ARIMA（0,1,3） model was feasible and accurate in a short time. According to the model, the carbon sink capacity of macroscopic algae in Dongtou from 2012 to 2014 would be 3697.21 t, 3570.50 t, 3773.32 t, it showed that the carbon sink capacity of macroscopic algae in the next three years in Dongtou would keep increasing on the whole. Therefore, carbon sink fisheries based on macroscopic algae mariculture had remarkable economic, ecological and social benefits. Construction of the incentive measures and mechanisms of the government, strengthen policy guidance and fishery development model innovation were suggested to promote the healthy development of macroscopic algae breeding carbon sink industry.
出处
《中国农学通报》
CSCD
2014年第8期63-67,共5页
Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin
基金
2012年温州市科技计划项目"温州大型藻类碳汇增汇技术研究"(S20120013)
2013年温州科技职业学院重大科研培育项目"大型藻类溶解有机碳分泌及其机理"
2012年浙江省海洋与渔业局海洋环保项目"浙江近海贝藻类碳汇渔业增汇技术调查研究"
2012年洞头县科技计划项目"洞头大型藻类渔业碳汇增汇技术研究"(N2012Y37A)
关键词
时间序列模型
洞头
大型藻类
碳汇
预测
time series model
Dongtou County
macroscopic algae
carbon sink
forecast
