摘要
运用西北5省1999—2010年的面板数据,计算产业碳排放量,采用灰色关联度模型,分析影响因素与产业碳排放量之间的关联程度。结果显示:①从总量来看,1999—2010年西北5省产业碳排放量呈现波动增加的趋势,陕西、甘肃、青海、宁夏和新疆的碳排放量分别从1999年的3.22×107t、3.05×107t、7.80×106t、1.12×107t和3.02×107t增加到2010年的1.24×108t、6.86×107t、2.15×107t、5.76×107t和9.29×107t,从2008年起,陕西省的碳排放量开始高于全国平均值。从人均碳排放量来看,也呈现出波动增加趋势,宁夏的人均碳排放量在不同年份均高于其他4省。②从空间来看,西北5省之间的产业碳排放量存在内部差异,其排序为:陕西>新疆>甘肃>宁夏>青海。③西北5省产业碳排放量与影响因素之间的关联度有某种相似之处,共同表现出:经济效应>人口效应>结构效应>技术效应。④不同影响因素对产业碳排放量的关联度存在省际之间的差异,人口效应表现为:宁夏>甘肃>新疆>青海>陕西,经济效应表现为:新疆>宁夏>青海>陕西>甘肃,结构效应表现为:甘肃>宁夏>青海>新疆>陕西,技术效应表现为:宁夏>青海>新疆>陕西>甘肃。
The global environment problems caused by carbon emission attract more and more attention all over the world, the study on regional industrial carbon emission can provide the theoretical basis to the countries for sav- ing energy, reducing carbon emission and exploring low-carbon development path. In this paper, the relationships between the industrial carbon emission and its affecting factors were analyzed using the grey correlation model based on the panel data from the five provinces and autonomous regions in northwest China during the period of 1999- 2010, which included the data of energy consumption, GDP, population, and calculated industrial carbon emis- sion. The results are as follows： （1） From the viewpoint of total energy consumption, the industrial carbon emission in the five provinces and autonomous regions in northwest China was in an increase trend in a fluctuation way. The carbon emissions in Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia and Xinjiang were increased from 3. 22 × 107 t, 3.05 × 107 t, 7.80 × 106 t, 1. 12 × 10 7 t and 3.02 × 10 7t in 1999 to 1.24 ×108 t, 6.86 × 107 t, 2. 15× 10 7 t, 5.76× 107 t and 9.29 ×10 7 t in 2010, respectively. The carbon emission in Shaanxi was higher than the national average from 2008. The per capita carbon emissions in Gansu in different years were higher than those of other four provinces; （2） Spatially, the industrial carbon emission was in an order of Shaanxi 〉 Xinjiang 〉 Gansu 〉 Ningxia 〉 Qinghai; （3） There was a certain correlation between the industrial carbon emission and the affecting factors in the five provinces and autonomous regions in northwest China, and it was in an order of economic effect 〉 population effect 〉 structure effect 〉 technical effect; （4） The correlation values between the industrial carbon emission and the affecting factors were different from different provinces and autonomous regions： the population effect was in an order of Ningxia 〉 Gansu 〉 Xinjiang 〉 Qinghai 〉 Shaanxi, the economic effect was in an order of Xinjiang 〉 Ningxia 〉 Qinghai 〉 Shaanxi 〉 Gansu, the structure effect was in an order of Gansu 〉 Ningxia 〉 Qinghai 〉 Xinjiang 〉 Shaanxi, and the technical effect was in an order of Ningxia 〉 Qinghai 〉 Xinjiang 〉 Shaanxi 〉 Gansu.
出处
《干旱区研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第3期424-430,共7页
Arid Zone Research
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(10XJA790011)
陕西师范大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(GK201302031)
国家自然科学基金项目(41371523)
陕西省社会科学基金项目(10E126)~~
关键词
面板数据
灰色关联分析
产业碳排放
影响因素
西北5省
panel data
grey correlation analysis
industrial carbon emission
affecting factor
the five provinces and autonomous regions
