摘要
随着社会经济的发展,合理而准确地预测城市未来的需水量将对城市水资源规划和解决将来的用水危机起到指导作用。利用大连市2001-2008年度城市供水量资料,应用灰色理论建立GM(1,1)预测模型,并对所建模型进行残差检验和后验差检验;利用所建模型对大连市年需水量进行预测,结合大连市地理位置、特点和水资源利用现状,分析了大连市水资源量的保证程度及海水利用前景,结果表明:在未来10 a左右,大连市的用水量将超出水资源供给能力,可能会出现严重的淡水危机,如不采取措施加以控制,将会影响人们正常的生活生产秩序。建议在充分利用本地水资源的基础上,制定相应的扶持海水利用发展的政策,大力发展推广海水淡化及海水直接利用等技术,实现淡水资源的增量和替代。
With socio-economic development, accurate prediction of urban water demands in the future plays a guiding role in formulating urban water resources planning and resolving future water crisis. Based on the water supply information of Dalian city from 2001 to 2008, the GM（1, 1） prediction model was established in line with the grey theory, and the model was examined through residual test and posterior variance test. The annual water demand of Dalian city was predicted utilizing this model. Combined with Dalian ＇s geographical position and features and water resources utilization status, analysis was conducted on the guarantee situation of water resources quantity and the prospect of seawater utilization. The results indicate that within the coming decade, Dalian ＇s water consumption will exceed its water supply capacity, leading to severe freshwater crisis. If measures were not taken to control water consumption, people＇s normal livelihoods and productive activities would be affected. This paper recommends that on the basis of making the most of local water resources, policies be drawn up to greatly facilitate the development of seawater desalination and direct seawater utilization technologies, in order to achieve freshwater augmentation and optimization.
出处
《海洋技术》
北大核心
2014年第2期47-51,共5页
Ocean Technology
基金
海洋公益性行业科研专项经费资助项目(201105026)
海洋局业务化项目资助(YWH-2012-22)
关键词
灰色模型
城市用水量
海水利用
GM（1
1） model
urban water consumption
seawater utilization
