摘要
基于我国A股2003—2010年的数据样本，本文研究了分析师现金流预测对盈余预测准确性的影响。结果发现，分析师现金流预测有助于其更好地理解盈余结构，进而有利于盈余预测准确性的提高。进一步，我国特有的退市以及增发配股制度提供了公开的盈余管理信号，对于盈余管理动机明显的公司，分析师发布现金流预测对提高盈余预测准确性的作用更加显著。本文的结论对理解分析师预测行为以及投资者决策具有重要的参考价值。
This paper examines the effect of analysts＇ cash flow forecast on earnings forecast accuracy. We find that the relationship between analysts＇ cash flow forecasts and earnings forecast accuracy is positive, suggesting that cash flow forecasts can improve analysts＇ understanding of earnings structure and the accuracy of earnings forecast. Based on the unique delisting and SEO regulation on reported profitability, we find that for firms with public signals of earnings management incentives, analysts＇ cash flow forecast can reduce the negative effect of earnings management and significantly improve earnings forecast accuracy. Our research is useful to the under- standing of analysts＇ behavior and to the investors＇ investment decisions.
出处
《金融研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第5期162-177,共16页
Journal of Financial Research
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(项目批准号:71132004和项目批准号
71222204)的资助
关键词
分析师现金流预测
盈余管理
分析师盈余预测准确性
Analysts＇ cash flow forecasts, Earnings management, Analysts＇ earnings forecast accuracy
