摘要
利用广东省86个气象站1961—2010年气温资料,借用数理统计方法分析气候变暖背景下广东省寒露风变化特点;再利用广东省1983—2010年晚稻产量资料,采用正交多项式等方法分析广东省寒露风对晚稻产量的影响。结果表明:1997年以来,全省寒露风过程总次数减少3成多;寒露风发生强度变轻;重度寒露风出现时间提前;重度寒露风发生次数、天数及频率与晚稻产量有明显的负相关关系。按照目前的晚稻播期制度,中部及东南部晚稻抽穗期是该地区重度寒露风的平均出现时间。在此基础上,提出广东省中部地区晚稻生产需要合理安排的防灾减灾建议。
Based on daily air temperatures of 1961 to 2010 collected from 86 weather stations in Guangdong, the characteristics of anomalously lower temperatures in autumn （LTA） are analyzed with a method of mathematical and physical statistics. Then, based on the data from 1983 to 2010, the LTA effect on late rice yield is also studied by the orthogonal polynomial method. The results show that since 1997, the LTA has occurred 30% less, its intensity has got lighter and its severe cases have taken place earlier. The yield of late rice is in significantly negative correlation with the occurrence times, total number of days and frequency of severe LTA events. According to the planting system of late rice in Guangdong, the severe LTA usually occurs during the heading stage of late rice in the middle and southeast parts of Guangdong. On this basis, we suggested that the late rice planting time in the middle part of the province should be appropriately adjusted to prevent disasters.
出处
《热带气象学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第2期382-386,共5页
Journal of Tropical Meteorology
基金
国家公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201406025
GYHY201106021)
国家"十二五"科技支撑计划课题(2011BAD32B02)
中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF2011-25
CCSF201211)
广东省低碳发展专项资金(2012-019)
广东省气象局项目(2011B06
2012B08)共同资助
关键词
应用气象学
寒露风
晚稻产量
影响
applied meteorology
anomalously lower temperatures in autumn
yield of late rice
impact
