摘要
淮河流域水旱灾害频发,尤其是大范围的旱灾,对粮食的高产稳产造成威胁。为了及时评估干旱对一季稻产量的影响,利用淮河流域各县1971—2008年一季稻单产、气象和农业经济数据,建立了基于作物水分敏感指数、干旱强度、台站脆弱性和抗灾能力的一季稻旱灾损失评估模型。根据减产率的概率分布曲线,将干旱划分为5个等级,对模型评估结果进行检验。结果表明,模型准确率约80%,区域干旱损失评估结果和实际灾损的轻重分布情况基本一致。该评估模型的精度基本可以满足业务应用的需求。
Flood and drought occurs frequently in the Huaihe River Basin, especially wide range of drought, which is a serious threat to high and stable crop yield. In order to assess drought effect on rice yield timely, the evaluation model of rice yield loss caused by drought in the Huaihe River Basin was established based on the intensity of agricultural drought, crop sensitivity, relative vulnerability and anti disaster capability, by using county rice yield, meteorological and agricultural economic data from 1971-2008 in the Huaihe River Basin. According to the probability distribution curve of yield reduction rate, rice yield loss caused by drought was divided into five levels. The test results showed that： the accuracy was approximately 80% and the assessment of regional drought damage was nearly the same as the real, which means his model could be applied in agrometeorological service.
出处
《中国农学通报》
CSCD
2014年第15期24-28,共5页
Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin
基金
2010年度国家公益性行业(气象)科研专项"淮河流域主要农作物旱涝损失精细化评估技术"(GYHY201006027)
关键词
一季稻
干旱
损失评估
淮河流域
rice
drought
assessment of yield loss
Huaihe River Basin
