摘要
针对目前状态检修决策中存在的决策模型目标单一且适用性受限,没有考虑到决策者的实际检修预期和检修意愿,个体决策而非群决策等问题,提出一种基于D-S证据理论的状态检修多目标群决策模型。首先建立了状态检修决策框架和以效用、成本为一级指标的检修决策指标体系,并给出了指标量化方法;然后将决策指标作为证据源,将在检修导则和基于当前状态的剩余寿命预测指导下形成的检修方案作为识别框架,将各方案下标准化的指标值、指标综合权重和专家权重归一化到D-S证据理论的基本概率分配(basic probability assignment,BPA)值中,实现对检修方式和检修时段的多目标群决策。最后,算例验证了该模型能够有效地实现状态检修多目标群决策,并能根据决策者意愿进行调控,决策结果使所有指标达到综合最优。
Regarding to the problems existing in condition based maintenance decision-making,such problems as single target model,ignorance of the decision makers＇ expects,individual rather than group decision-making,a decision-making model employing D-S evidence theory was proposed in this paper.At first,a maintenance decision-making framework was established,as well as a complete decision index system summarized from numerous maintenance objectives and strains.And the indices＇ quantitative methods were given.Then the indices were taken as the theory＇s evidences,the maintenance schemes which were combined of the maintenance types based on the maintenance guidelines and time intervals partitioned by two weeks from equipment＇s predicted average remaining life based on its current state were taken as the recognition framework,while the standardized indices＇ values and the comprehensive weights of the indices and decision makers were normalized to the mass functions,multi-objective and group decision-making result was obtained then.Finally,a numerical example was used to illustrate the proposed decision-making process,which demonstrates that the model can effectively realize the control of the decision-making process considering the decision makers＇ intentions.All indicators can achieve overall optimum.
出处
《电网技术》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第6期1627-1633,共7页
Power System Technology
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(51107112)~~
关键词
输变电设备
状态检修
决策框架
指标体系
D-S证据理论
transmission and transformation equipment
condition based maintenance
decision-making framework
index system
D-S evidence theory
