摘要
基于2005年"小普查"及2010年"六普"汇总数据,利用生命表技术及Sullivan法,分析了男、女老年人口不健康预期寿命及其差异的变化,同时根据历年的生育率、死亡率和结婚率,利用SOCSIM微观模拟数据分析老年人口代际支持资源。分析发现,老年人口不健康预期寿命占预期寿命的比重呈缩小趋势,且男性的压缩程度低于女性;与2005年相比,2010年老年人口不健康预期寿命在低龄阶段略微增加,而年龄较高阶段则下降;老年人口不健康预期寿命的性别差异随年龄的提高而下降,这种差异在5年间呈压缩趋势。同时,我们发现,低龄阶段老年人口的存活子女数不断减少且将持续一段时间,这抵消了老年人口不健康预期寿命压缩对照料资源需求的减少。未来中国,对于不健康,甚至失能老年人口,单纯依靠家庭资源已经无法满足养老需求,对此,社区帮扶和养老机构的发展显得尤为重要。
Based on 1% National Population Sample Survey in 2005,the Sixth National Population Census in2010,and historical fertility,mortality and marriage rates,using Sullivan method and SOCSIM micro-simulation a-nalysis technique,this paper analysed the changes of unhealthy life expectancy （YULE）and its disparity amongChinese male and female elderly,and the change of inter-generational support resources of Chinese elderly. Theresults showed that the proportion of YULE in LE is decreasing and the decreasing speed of YULE/ LE is lower a-mong male elderly than among female elderly at all ages between 2005 and 2010. The results of comparison onYULE of the elderly in 2010 and 2005 demonstrated that the former is slightly increasing at lower ages and de-creasing at higher ages. The gender disparity of YULE in 2005 and 2010 is decreasing with ages and years. Wealso found that the number of children of the elderly at lower ages keeps decreasing,which indicates that theyneed more care resources in the near future. The conclusions suggested that the elderly with disability cannot livewell solely on home care system and accordingly developing community help and pension institutions are particu-larly important in China.
出处
《南京农业大学学报（社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第6期93-100,108,共9页
Journal of Nanjing Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition)
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(13YJC840013)
江苏省社会科学研究青年基金项目(13SHC012)
关键词
不健康预期寿命
代际支持
性别差异
老年人
Unhealthy Life Expectancy
Inter-generation Support
Gender Disparity
Elderly
