摘要
依据福建省宁化县1994-2011年油料产量和播种面积数据分别建立 GM（1，1）预测模型，经检验模型精度分别为89.13％和91.30％，并用该模型对2012-2022年的油料产量和播种面积进行外推预测。预测结果表明，模型的预测精度较高，在面积和产量预测中有较强的科学性和可行性，符合其灰色特性，适用性好。
The GM（1,1）forecast model was established in accordance with the yield and sowing area of oil crops from 1994 to 2011 in Ninghua County of Fujian Province. After examination,the precision of the models reached 89. 13% and 91. 30% respectively. The models were also used for the extrapolation forecast of the yield and sowing area of oil crops from 2012 to 2022. The forecast result showed that the precision of the models were high with the good fea-tures of scientificity and feasibility,in keeping with the grey properties with good applicability.
出处
《亚热带水土保持》
2014年第2期12-14,共3页
Subtropical Soil and Water Conservation
