摘要
本文将购房者、房产商与中央银行纳入统一的模型当中,对房价的影响因素进行理论建模,然后拓展了传统的向量自回归模型长短期分解技术,研究了利率、通货膨胀率、汇率、土地价格以及经济增长率对房价的长期和短期影响。研究表明,利率上升对房价具有长期的负向效应,短期内会加剧房价的波动;通货膨胀预期在长期内促使资金流入房地产行业,对房价会产生推动作用,短期内,通货膨胀促使房地产企业加快投资速度,房屋供给增加预期引起房价下降的冲击;人民币升值在长短期内均与房价上涨存在正向作用;当前经济增速提高时,对房地产业的投资和投机具有一定的抑制作用;土地价格长期来看推动房价上涨,短期内对房价影响的传导较慢。
In this paper, we have studied short-term and long-term impact of macroeconomic factors on housing price. First, buyers, real estate business, and central bank were put into a unified model, and we have established a theoretical model about factors that influence housing price. Second, improved short-term and long-term decomposition of traditional vector autoregression model, we have studied short-term and long-term impact of interest rates, land prices and other macroeconomic variables--inflation, exchange rate and economic growth rate on housing price. The results show that interest rate rise has a long-term negative effect on housing price, the tightening of monetary policy can play an important in restraining housing price rise excessively, and in the short term it can aggravate the volatility of housing price ; Land price promotes housing price in the long term, compared with other economic variables, the price of land has little impact on house price, and shows a lower conduction velocity. In addition, the rise in price causing buyers to expect interest rates rise has a negative impact on housing price in the short run. But, rising price highlights the preserve value of real estate, so it can stimulate housing price rise in the long run. Renminbi appreciation has a positive effect on housing price rise in the short and long run. Improving of economic growth rate can hinder demand of speculating and investing real estate to some extent.
出处
《统计研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第6期25-32,共8页
Statistical Research
基金
国家自然科学基金青年项目(31702156)
教育部人文社科青年项目(10YJC790196)
北京市教委青年英才计划的资助
