摘要
本文在分析我国1978-2010年物价变动数据的基础上,运用VAR模型实证分析了我国物价变动的影响因素。研究结果表明,我国通胀产生的原因主要是通胀预期和广义货币供应量M2的增加,而货币化进程的加快则对通胀有明显的抑制作用;投资的变动对通胀有正向的推动作用,但作用不显著,表明投资增长并非是我国2013年下半年至2014年初通胀的主要原因;我国失业率与通胀率之间呈现出微弱的负向关系,其对通胀的替代作用并不明显;汇率变动与通胀率的变动在理论上所表现出来的反向相关关系仍然微弱成立。
Based on the price data of 1978-2010, the paper analyzes the influence factors of price change in China with VAR model. The results show that the main causes of inflation in China are inflation expectation and the increasing money supply of M2, while the accelerating of monetization has a negative effect on inflation obviously. Meanwhile, investment puts a positive but indistinctive power on the price, this result suggests that investment may not the main cause of inflation in China from second half of 2013; furthermore, the negative correlations between the inflation rate and unemployment rate as well as exchange rate in theory are still tenable weakly, namely the substitutable effect comes from them is faint.
出处
《南方金融》
北大核心
2014年第5期22-26,共5页
South China Finance
基金
广州市哲学社会科学发展"十二五"规划2012年度课题<生产要素
产业集聚与广州市二三产业协调发展问题研究>(课题编号:2012GJ12)
2010年度国家自然科学基金课题<基于经济控制力的高端服务业集聚研究>(课题编号:71003028)的阶段性成果
