摘要
受金融危机影响,世界经济仍在谷底徘徊。弱经济形势下的投资成为一个有讨论价值的问题。国外成熟市场普遍观点认为,相比强周期性行业,弱周期性行业需求弹性小,盈利稳定,发展缓慢,在经济衰弱期应该多投资弱周期性行业。但是这个观点在我国非成熟市场是否成立仍需要数据分析与支持。本文以典型的弱周期性行业食品和医药行业为例,以强周期行业的化工行业进行实证对比分析,选取了2005-2012年三个行业上市公司的财务数据作为样本,就盈利稳定性和企业发展性进行对比分析。对于盈利稳是性,作者认为稳定的现金流、每股收益和权益回报率对于企业盈利稳定性的作用至关重要,还利用标准离差率来体现企业数据的波动程度,建立了相应的评价体系;对于企业成长性,利用资产周转率、销售毛利率等比例,在前人研究的基础上进行了评价模型改进,对各行业企业进行打分,最后得出与成熟市场不同的结论:与强周期性行业相比,食品行业并没有较强的盈利稳定性,医药行业也不是发展缓慢,竟表现出较强的企业成长性。对于研究结果的原因分析,作者认为在我国食品安全问题是食品行业盈利稳定性较差的根本原因,而我国医药行业成长性较强是受基本国情、政府支持和投入等因素的影响。
Affected by the financial crisis in 2008, the world economics keeps falling very rapidly. Therefore, making reasonable investment decisions are of great importance under weak economic situation. A general idea among mature financial market such as U.S market is that, compared to strong cyclical industry, weak cyclical industry has more stable earnings and slow development potential, therefore is more worthy of investment during weak economic periods. However, it needs data analysis and support whether the opinion above still works in China, where the market is not mature. The paper takes food industry and pharmaceutical industry as examples, uses chemical industry as contrast group, selects the financial statement of companies which has gone public from 2005 to 2012, and analyzes the earnings stability and enterprise growth of the three industries discussed above. In terms of earnings stability, the paper regards that stable cash flow, earnings per share and return on equity have significant influence on companies＇ earnings stability, therefore it uses these factors, as well as the coefficient of variance to formulate the scoring system. In terms of enterprise growth, the paper takes asset turnover, gross margin as main attributes, and makes the evaluation model based on previous researches, then scores companies in each industry. Eventually the paper reaches a conclusion which is different from mature financial market： compared to strong cyclical industries, neither weak cyclical industries like food industry have more stable earnings, nor does pharmaceutical industry have smaller development capability, which is even opposite. To analysis the reasons, the author considers that food safety issues result in the weak earnings stability of food industry, and that the strong enterprise growth of pharmaceutical industry is due to government support, fundamental realities of China and massive scientific research investment.
出处
《上海管理科学》
2014年第3期65-70,共6页
Shanghai Management Science
关键词
弱周期性行业
盈利稳定性
企业成长性
最小典型相关系数
离差率
独立样本检验
weak cyclical industry, earnings stability, enterprise growth, the smallest canonical coefficient, coefficient of variance, Independent-samples T test
