摘要
文章结合甘南州1984—2010年的样本数据,采用协整理论、VAR模型、脉冲响应函数等方法从长期关系、短期波动两方面对甘南州城镇化与产业结构之间的关系进行研究。单位根检验和协整检验表明,甘南州城镇化与第二产业和第三产业发展之间存在长期均衡关系。脉冲响应分析表明,从短期来看,产业结构的提升可以持续促进甘南城镇化的发展;同时,城镇化可以带动甘南产业结构的升级,但由于甘南州城镇化起步较晚,城镇化和产业发展水平低,城镇化与产业结构提升互动较弱。方差分解分析进一步表明,城镇化水平的波动受自身冲击影响非常显著,第三产业、特别是第二产业对其冲击影响一般,因此,甘南州产业发展没有成为城镇化的主体动力。
This paper, based on Gannan＇s 1984 -2010 data, uses co-integration theory, VAR mode and impulse response function to study its interaction between urbanization and industrialization from a long and short fluctuation. Unit root and co-integration tests show a long-term balance between its secondary and third industries in urbanization. Impulse response indicates, for a short term, an improving industrial structure can promote urbanization, and vice versa. Gannan has a poor interaction due to its late urbanization and low industrialization level. Variance decomposition implies that urbanization＇s fluctuation is largely impacted by itself, less by the third and second industries. It concludesthat Gannan＇s industrialization is not a major drive to its urbanization.
出处
《资源与产业》
2014年第3期120-126,共7页
Resources & Industries
基金
国家自然基金地区项目(41261042)
2013年甘肃省高等学校科研项目(2013A-132)
兰州文理学院科学前沿与交叉学科创新项目(2012JC02)
关键词
甘南藏族自治州
城镇化
产业结构
Gannan Zang autonomous prefecture
urbanization
industrial structure
