增长混合模型:分析不同类别个体发展趋势被引量：63

Growth Mixture Modeling:A method for describing specific class growth trajectory

导出

摘要追踪研究可以展现个体随时间的变化趋势、个体间差异并更好地揭示变量之间的因果关系,日益受到社会科学研究者的青睐,处理追踪数据的统计模型也日新月异。传统的分析模型假设样本同质,然而当此假设不满足时,就需要考虑群体的异质性问题。目前,处理异质性样本增长问题的模型主要有潜类增长模型(或组基增长模型)和增长混合模型。增长混合模型构成一般的形式,在一定条件下传统的潜在增长曲线模型和潜类增长模型均是其特例。沿着增长混合模型的发展路径,本文从应用性角度介绍了上述三个模型各自的特点、优势和Mplus软件实现,并通过一个实例演示了分析过程。最后,对当前研究存在的问题和将来的研究方向做了简要讨论。 Longitudinal research has attracted more and more attention among social science researchers in recent years,because it could describe the within-person change and between-person differences in change simultaneously,along with special advantages in explaining causality.For conventional latent growth curve modeling(LGCM),it is not to be hold to assume all individuals are drawn from a homogeneous population in many applied research situations.When the population is heterogeneous,the growth mixture modeling(GMM) and latent class growth modeling(LCGM;or group-based growth modeling) are the best choices.In fact,LGCM and LCGM are the special types of GMM as the universal model.The purpose of this paper is to provide a non-technical overview of these growth modeling(LGCM,LCGM and GMM).The modeling procedures are illustrated with a practical example.Finally,current debates and issues in the modeling process,as well as the new directions for future research,are briefly discussed.

作者王孟成毕向阳叶浩生

机构地区广州大学心理学系中国政法大学社会学院广州大学心理与脑科学研究中心

出处《社会学研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2014年第4期220-241,246,共22页 Sociological Studies

基金国家社会科学基金教育学青年项目"心理健康教育的循证实践模式及本土化研究"(项目编号:CBA130124) 广东省高等学校优秀青年教师培养计划(项目编号:Yq2013068)资助

关键词追踪研究潜类别增长模型增长混合模型 Mplus

分类号 C91-03 [经济管理]

引文网络
相关文献

参考文献46

1宋时歌,陈华珊.纵贯性数据与生长模型在社会科学实证研究中的应用[J].社会学研究,2005(5):69-91. 被引量：6
2王盂成,2014,《潜变量建模与Mplus应用:基础篇》,重庆:重庆大学出版社.
3Abroms, L. , B. Simons-Morton, D. L. Haynie, & R. Chen, 2005, "Psychosocial Predictors of Smoking Trajectories During Middle and High School. " Addiction 100.
4Bauer, D. J. & P. J. Curran 2003, " Distributional Assumptions of Growth Mixture Models: Implications for Overextraction of Latent Trajectory Classes. " Psychological Methods 8.
5Bauer, D. J. & P. J. Curran 2004, "The Integration of Continuous and Discrete Latent Variable Models: Potential Problems and Promising Opportunities. " Psychological Methods 9.
6Bollen, K. A. & P. J. Curran 2006, Latent Curve Models: A Structural Equation Perspective. Hoboken, NJ : Wiley.
7Bryk, A. S. & S. W. Raudenbush 1987, "Application of Hierarchical Linear Models to Assessing Change. " Psychological Bulletin 101.
8Collins, L. M. & S. T. Lanza 2010, Latent Class and Latent Traasition Analysis : With Applications in the Social, Behavioral, and Health Sciences. New York: Wiley.
9Curran, P. J. 2003, "Have Multilevel Models been Structural Equation Models all Along?" Multivariate Behavioral Research 38.
10Feldman, B. J. , K. E. Masyn & R. D. Conger 2009, "New Approaches to Studying Problem Behaviors: A Comparison of Methods for Modeling Longitudinal, Categorical Adolescent Drinking Data. " Developmental Psychology 45.

二级参考文献28

1Akaike, H. 1973,“Information Theory as An Extension of the Maximum Likelihood Principle.” Second International Symposium on Intormation Theory, Budapest, Hungary, Akademiai Kiado.
2Stevens, J., 2002, Applied Multivariate Statistics for the Social Sciences. Mahwah, N. J., : Lawrence Erlbaum Associates.
3Willett,J.B. 1988, “Questions and Answers in the Measurement of Change.”In Review of Research in Education, (ed.) by Ernest Z. Rothkopf, vol. 15. Washington, D. C. : American Education Research Association.
4Willett,J.B.1989, “Questions and Answers in the Measurement of Change.” Review of Research in Eduexttion, ( ed. ) by E.Z. Rothkopf. Washington, D. C. : American Education Research Association.
5Willett,J.B.1997, “Measuring Change: What Individual Growth Modeling Buys You. ”Change and Development : Issues of Theory, Method, and Application, (eds.) by E. Amsel & K. A. Renninger. Mahwah, NJ. : Lawrence Erlbaum Associates.
6Willett, J. B. & A. G. Sayer 1994, “Using Covariance Structure Analysis to Detect Correlates and Predictors of Individual Change Over Time. ”Psychological Bulletin 116.
7Willett, J. B., J. D. Singer, et al. 1998, “The Design and Analysis of Longitudinal Studies of Development and Psychopathology in Context: Statistical Models and Methodological Recommendations. ” Ddevelopment and Psychopathology 10.
8Burgard, S. 2002,“Does Race Matter? Children's Height in Brazil and South Africa. ”Demography 39.
9Cronbach, L. J. & L. Furby, 1970, “How We Should Measure 'Change'- or Should We?” Psychological Bulletin 74.
10Curran , Patrick J. 2003, “ Have Multilevel Models Been Structural Equation Models All Along?” Multivariate Behavioral Research 38.