摘要
出口贸易作为国内污染排放的"三大引擎"之一,加剧了中国能源耗费和碳排放。根据1990-2011年中国一次能源消耗量,采用IPCC方法估算了1990-2011年中国碳排放量;基于1990-2011年中国碳排放量和出口贸易额之间的时间序列数据,通过构建碳排放量与出口贸易之间的Tapio脱钩模型,判别了中国碳排放量与出口贸易之间的脱钩状态;借鉴Kaya恒等式,运用LMDI方法进一步构建了扩展的Tapio脱钩模型,对碳排放的驱动因素进行了分解。分析结果表明:1990-2011年间,中国碳排放总量与出口贸易额均保持高速增长;该期间中国碳排放与出口贸易总体呈弱脱钩关系,而16个分行业的脱钩状态存在显著差异;出口贸易增长与碳排放增加存在正相关,出口贸易增长是碳排放增加的主要原因之一,1990-2011年中国碳排放与出口贸易脱钩弹性指数及分解指标显示,降低能源碳排放强度是实现碳排放与出口贸易脱钩的关键,能源结构应当引起关注。我们认为,攀升出口产品附加值、优化出口产品结构、"碳生产国"与"碳消费国"责任共担是实现碳排放与出口贸易脱钩的本原。
As one of the ＇ three major engines＇ for domestic pollution and emissions, export trade exacerbated China＇ s energy costs and carbon emissions. According to China＇ s primary energy consumption in 1990 - 2011, adopting the method of the IPCC, the paper estimated China＇ s carbon emissions in 1990- 2011. In view of China＇ s carbon emissions and export trade volume between the time series data in 1990 -2011, by constructing Tapio decoupling model between carbon emissions and export trade, the paper identified the decoupling state between China＇ s carbon emissions and export trade. Using Kaya identity and LMDI method, the paper builded an extended Tapio decoupling model to decompose the driving factors of carbon emissions. The calculation and analysis results show that： From 1990 to 2011, China＇ s total export volume of both carbon emissions and export trade maintain high growth. In general, Chinese carbon emissions and export trade during that period was in weak decoupling relations, but the decoupled state of 16 sub-sectors were significantly different. There is a positive correlation between export growth and increased carbon emissions and export growth is one of the major reasons for the increase in carbon emissions. The elasticity index and decomposition decoupling between China＇ s carbon emissions and export in 1990 - 2011 indicated that reducing energy intensity of carbon emissions and improving energy intensity was the key to achieving decoupling of carbon emissions and export trade, and energy structure should arouse our concern. We think that rising value-added export products and optimizing the structure of export products, building shared responsibility of carbon-producing countries and carbon-consuming countries are primitive to achieve decoupling of carbon emissions and export trade.
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第7期73-81,共9页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
国家自然科学基金项目"中国企业应对反倾销的会计信息证据效力保障机制研究"(编号:71272068)
教育部人文社会科学规划项目"企业应对反倾销成本战略防护体系研究"(编号:11YJA630058)
教育部博士点基金项目"我国企业应对反倾销的会计信息证据生成机制研究"(编号:20130162110074)
湖南省哲学社会科学基金重点项目"应对反倾销的成本防护能力评价体系研究"(编号:2010ZDB51)
