摘要
以往实验研究表明,个体在制定决策时往往会表现出过度自信的行为特征.在广告费用与订货量的联合决策报童模型中引入了个体过度自信的行为特征,为在随机需求情况下的过度自信零售商建立了广告与订货量的联合决策模型.证明了在需求依赖于广告投入时,过度自信零售商的广告费用高于理性零售商.讨论了过度自信零售商和理性零售商的信念期望利润和实际利润对比变化情况.最后,结合数值例子,对模型进行了灵敏度分析.
Experimental studies have shown that individuals tend to show the characteristics of overconfidence when making decisions. Here the characteristics of individual overconfidence was introduced in the joint decision-making model of advertising costs and order size. The joint decision-making model between advertisement and order size under stochastic demand for the overconfident retailers was built. It was proved that when the demand depends on the advertising investment, the overconfident retailer＇s advertising costs are higher than those of rational retailers. The profits of the overconfident retailers and the rational retailers were compared. Finally, with the numerical examples, a sensitivity analysis of the model was performed.
基金
国家自然科学基金重点项目(71131003)
国家自然科学基金(71371075
71271089
71201044)
国家社会科学基金青年项目(12CGL041)
教育部人文社科青年项目(13YJC630075)
安徽省高校自然科学基金重点项目(KJ2013A235)资助
关键词
过度自信
广告费用
订货量
overconfidence
advertising costs
order quantity
