摘要
华南前汛期降水主要受大尺度西风带锋面系统影响,其大范围暴雨过程还与低空急流密切相关,降水量有明显的年际变化,有些年份降水范围大,持续时间长,降水强度大,往往造成洪涝;然而,也有些年份降水特别偏少,出现“空汛”现象,使一些地区早稻插不下,插下的也无水灌溉,甚至连工业、生活用水也很困难,影响国计民生。本文从气候学角度分析了1951—1986年华南前汛期旱涝的基本特征,并利用经验正交函数(EOF)分析方法对华南前汛期降水的时空分布进行研究,给出了四个降水典型场的特征,对预报各地区的旱涝趋势有一定的帮助。
In this paper,the climatic characteristics of the precipitation during the Apr. - Jun. rainy season from 1951-1986 in South China are analysed. There are significant quasi-3-year periodic variations in the precipitation for the Apr. Jun. rainy seasons in South China. Substantial variations are found in the interannual variations in the 1950's. There are anomalously less rainfall in the 1960's and 1980's and anomalously more rainfall in the 1970's. Floods are frequently resulted from the seasonal precipitation, averaging at one instance per 2. 6 years and being twice as likely as droughts in terms of occurrence. The EOF method is used to study the temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation for the rainy season and the results show that there are 4 typical precipitation patterns.
出处
《热带气象》
CSCD
1992年第1期87-92,共6页
基金
研究受国家自然科学基金委员会
中国科学院重大项目"长江黄河两流域旱涝规律成因预测研究"的经费资助
