摘要
本文通过分析较为均匀地散布在我国不同气侯区域内的42个测站1881—1980年间气温、降水序列指出,过去一百年中,我国年平均气温第一主成分的长期趋势与北半球年平均气温长期趋势十分一致。按照过去一百年中我国各地气温变化长期趋势与北半球平均气温长期趋势的相互对比关系推算,在全球CO_2浓度加倍时,我国大部分地区的年平均气温可望升高5℃以上。对热量平衡方程和温度、湿度经验关系的分析还表明,平均气温每升高1℃,我国华北、西北地区的蒸发量将增加10％以上。因此,CO_2浓度的增加,势必将使我国干旱、半干旱地区的缺水状况更趋严重。
Based on the analysis of the temperature and precipitation series of 42 stations which are located in different areas of China, it is shown that the long-range trend of the first principal component of yearly mean temperature in China is coincided with that of the northern hemisphere yearly mean temperature. According to the correlation between the two trends it was estimated that the warming should be more than 5 ℃ in most part of China for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentrat i on. It is also shown by the data analysis that the increasing of evaporation should be more than10% for the 1℃ warming and because of the increasing of atmospheric CO2 concentration the water shortage in arid and semi-arid areas will be more serious.
出处
《气象科学》
CSCD
北大核心
1990年第1期1-8,共8页
Journal of the Meteorological Sciences
