摘要
首次将影响图分析方法引入到一对一空战机动决策中。在影响图模型中 ,各种空战态势下的每个备选机动方案都与一个概率值和一个效用值相联系 ,根据贝叶斯定理可以利用传感器信息降低结果的不确定性 ,影响图分析为综合效用值提供了概率分布 ,表示完成各备选动作的成功率 ,最终的决策根据所选的决策标准而定。最后进行灵敏度分析以决定各因素对决策结果的影响程度。
The influence diagram is introduced to maneuvering decision making in one-to-one air combat for the first time. In the influence diagram model, the possible combat situations related to each maneuver alternative are associated with a probability and a utility. The effects of sensor information that will reduce the uncertainty of the model are evaluated with Bayesian reasoning. Influence diagram analysis produces a probability distribution of the overall utility that represents the successfulness of a maneuver. The final decision is based on the decision criterion. At last, the impacts of different factors on the outcome of the maneuvering decision are determined by sensitivity analysis.
出处
《电光与控制》
2001年第1期49-53,共5页
Electronics Optics & Control
关键词
机动决策
影响图
效用函数
空战
maneuvering decision
influence diagram
utility function
air combat
