摘要
干旱是影响陇南冬小麦产量最主要的灾害性因素。从冬小麦生长关键时段所对应的农业气象条件入手 ,制定出陇南春旱指数 ,并分析其年际变化及对冬小麦产量影响的规律 ,最后由均生函数预测模型预测春旱指数 ,相应预测出冬小麦的产量 ,经 1999、2 0 0 0年两年试报 ,趋势准确。
Drought is the main disastrous element influencing winter wheat output in South Gansu.Based on agricultural meteorological factors during the critical period of winter wheat growth,the index of spring drought was adopted.After analyzing annual change of the index and its effect on winter wheat output,according to the prediction model of the mean generating function,the index and the winter wheat output have been predicted.The result of prediction is accurate after tests from 1999 to 2000.
出处
《中国农业气象》
CSCD
2002年第1期9-11,共3页
Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology
基金
国家"九五"重中之重项目"我国短期气候预测系统研究"资助
课题编号 :96 - 90 8- 0 5 - 0 3
