摘要
目的了解2008—2017年扬州市江都区传染病自动预警系统运行现状,为进一步优化传染病自动预警系统的预警效果提供依据。方法采用描述流行病学方法对2008—2017年扬州市江都区传染病自动预警信息进行统计分析。结果2008—2017年扬州市江都区共收到1750条预警信号,预警信号响应率100%,预警信号处理及时率98%(1715/1750),响应时间中位数(P25~P75)为0.77(0.2~1.41)h。预警信息涉及病种23种,前5位病种依次为麻疹、手足口病、流行性腮腺炎、戊型肝炎和痢疾,占全部预警信号数的80.46%;预警信号高峰分布主要在3—7月份,占预警信号总数的57.83%。经初步核实判断为疑似事件12起,现场调查确认暴发流行事件4起,预警信号阳性率为0.23%。结论扬州市江都区传染病自动预警系统整体运行良好,预警系统能辅助疾病预防控制机构早期发现传染病暴发,但存在预警信号阳性率低等问题,还需合理设置不同病种预警模式和阈值,提高暴发预警的整体效果。
[Objective]To analyze the operation of infectious disease automated-alert and response system in Jiangdu District of Yangzhou City from 2008-2017,provide evidence for the optimization of the system.[Methods]Descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze the data on the system of Jiangdu District during 2008-2017.[Results]There were 1 750 signals in Jiangdu District during 2008-2017,the signal response rate was 100%,the timeliness rate was 98%(1 715/1 750),and the median (P25-P75) time to response was 0.77(0.2-1.41)h. 23 categories of diseases were involved,and the first five diseases were measles,handfoot- and-mouth diseases,mumps,hepatitis E and dysentery,accounting for 80.46% of total signals. The warning signals were mainly released in the period of March to July ,occupying 57.83% in the total number of warning signals. 12 suspected events were judged by preliminary verification,and 4 outbreaks were finally confirmed by field investigation,with the alert signal positive rate of 0.23%.[Conclusion]The infectious disease automated-alert and response system performs well and stable in Jiangdu District of Yangzhou City,and the system can help disease prevention and control agency realize the early warning of infectious diseases,but the problems of low positive signal rate and some other problem are also existed,so the further improvement is still needed by setting reasonable model and threshold of different diseases to improve early warning effectiveness.
作者
丁璐
DING Lu(Disease Control Department,Center of Disease Control and Prevention of Jiangdu District,Yangzhou Jiangsu,225200,China)
出处
《职业与健康》
CAS
2018年第23期3254-3258,共5页
Occupation and Health
关键词
传染病
自动预警系统
描述流行病学
Infectious diseases
Automatic early-warning system
Descriptive epidemiology
