摘要
为探究国债市场开放对该国境外货币回流和货币国际化的支持作用,以美国为例,运用始于第二次世界大战后的国债市场数据进行美元回流定量研究。结果表明:以布雷顿森林体系瓦解前夜、石油危机和2008年金融危机为节点,美元回流促进了美国国债市场开放,并形成"新特里芬两难";从存量和流量的长期回流总量数据来看,国债市场开放吸引了外国官方储备回流,外国人对美中长期国债净买入在实质上形成对其贸易失衡的基础调节;从持有人、期限和经济周期的细分数据来看,金融危机期间外国官方和私人在国库券和中长期国债持有行为方面具有异质性。在人民币国际化道路上,中国应当注重国债市场开放,引导境外流动性回流扩容中的在岸国债市场,令该市场逐渐发挥国际金融功能。
Now adays,RMB internationalization is gradually extending from trade to investment,the openness of a country’s treasury securities market and its support in money reflow and currency internationalization is researched. This paper takes U. S. experience and makes quantitative analysis,concluding that:( 1) The collapse of the Bretton Woods System,Oil Crisis and financial crisis are the milestones for dollar reflow ’s important role to open U. S. treasury securities market,w hich forms a new "Triffin Dilemma"consequently.( 2) By interpreting long-term reflow stock and flow data,the paper can explain the special significance for an opening treasury securities market to attract foreign official reserves,w hich is a "basic adjustment"to U. S. imbalanced international trade.( 3) By observing holder and term structure data in different economic cycles,heterogeneous behaviors of foreign official and private investors in financial crisis are explored. On the road of RM B internationalization,the treasury market should be focused on,onshore treasury market in the expansion of foreign liquidity backflow should be guided to let the market gradually exert international finance function.
作者
孟一坤
MENG YiKun(Research Institute of Economics and Finance,Industrial Securities,Shanghai 200135)
出处
《财贸研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第10期64-75,共12页
Finance and Trade Research
关键词
国债市场
货币回流
新特里芬两难
金融危机
treasury securities market
money reflow
new Triffin dilemma
financial crisis
