摘要
文章选取2002—2016年UNCOMTRADE的HS编码(01-24章)统计数据,利用恒定市场份额(CMS)模型,分析中国对巴基斯坦农产品出口贸易增长的影响因素,并对各因素的影响程度和变化趋势进行分解和测算。CMS模型分解结果表明:中国对巴基斯坦农产品的出口增长受结构效应和竞争力效应的共同影响,年均贡献率分别为166.12%、195.2%。表明中国对巴基斯坦农产品出口会随着巴基斯坦进口的增加而增加,中国农产品竞争力的提高能有效的促进对巴基斯坦农产品出口,同时存在结构效应和竞争力效应促进作用不明显的问题。文章提出以下建议:扩大农产品的出口规模和种类,调整农产品出口结构,提高农产品竞争力;充分利用在巴基斯坦的农业投资项目,扩大农业领域的沟通交流。
This paper,based on the statistics of UN codes (01-24)from 2002to 2016,analyzed the influencing factors of China's export growth of agricultural products to Pakistan by applying the constant market share (CMS)model and analyzed the extent and trend of the impact of each factor decomposition and calculation.The result of CMS model decomposition showed that the export growth was affected by both the structural effect and the competitive ef- fect,with an average annual contribution rate of 166.12%and 195.2%respectively.This reflected that the export to Pakistan would increase with the increase of Pakistani imports.The improvement of the competitiveness of Chinese agricultural products can effectively promote the export to Pakistan,while the effect of structural and competitive ef- fects is not obvious.In view of the above findings,this paper proposed:expanding the scale and variety of exports of agricultural products,adjusting the export structure of agricultural products and improving the competitiveness of ag- ricultural products;and making full use of agricultural investment projects in Pakistan to expand communication and exchanges in agriculture.
作者
程云洁
武杰
CHENG Yun-jie;WU Jie(College of International Trade,Xinjiang University of Finance and Economics,Urumqi,Xinjiang,830211)
出处
《新疆大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》
CSSCI
2018年第4期10-20,共11页
Journal of Xinjiang University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)
基金
国家社会科学研究项目"中国与巴基斯坦互联互通建设问题研究"(14BGJ022)
新疆维吾尔自治区科技计划项目"新常态下新疆外贸出口供给侧改革发展研究"(2017D07013)
新疆财经大学创新团队项目"中巴经济走廊促进新疆经济发展研究"(2017XTD002)
