摘要
在新型城镇化进程深入推进的背景下,选择我国城镇化发展水平较高的京津冀、长三角和珠三角三大城市群为研究对象,利用STIRPAT模型分析了三大城市群城镇化水平与碳排放之间的关系。结果表明:三大城市群城镇化水平与碳排放之间呈现出先下降后上升的"正U型"曲线关系;经济发展与碳排放之间存在着"倒U型"的曲线关系;人口总量和能源强度对碳排放存在显著的正向影响,产业结构对碳排放影响较小。在城镇化发展早期加快城镇化发展速度,而在城镇化发展到一定阶段后,控制人口规模,降低能源强度,均可实现减少二氧化碳排放的目标。
Under the background of deeply promoting New-type urbanization,this paper chooses Beijing-TianjinHebei urban agglomeration,Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration and Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration as the research objects to analyze the relationship between urbanization level and carbon dioxide emissions by the STIRPAT model.The results show that the relationship between urbanization and carbon dioxide emissions in the three major urban agglomerations presents a U type curve, and the relationship between the economic development and carbon dioxide emissions presents an inverted U type curve.The total population and energy intensity exert a significant positive influence on the carbon dioxide emissions,but the industrial structure has less impact on it.Therefore,the purpose of carbon dioxide emissions reduction can be achieved by accelerating urbanization process in the early phase,and by controlling the population scale and reducing the energy intensity when urbanization level reaches to a certain degree.
作者
冯冬
李健
FENG Dong;LI Jian(College of Management and Economics,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China;Research Center for Circular Economy and Enterprise Sustainable Development,Tianjin University of Technology,Tianjin 300384,China)
出处
《长江流域资源与环境》
CAS
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第10期2194-2200,共7页
Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin
基金
教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(15JZD021)
关键词
城镇化
碳排放
STIRPAT模型
三大城市群
urbanization
carbon dioxide emissions
STIRPAT model
three major urban agglomerations
