摘要
本文基于中国31个省份2001-2015年的平衡面板数据,构建面板平滑转移回归模型,实证检验人口老龄化影响我国经济增长的门槛特征、动态变化及地区差异。研究发现,人口老龄化对经济增长的影响呈现非线性及显著的门槛特征;基于纵剖面的时间序列分析表明,人口老龄化对经济增长的正向效应随时间变化呈现先下降后上升的动态走势;基于横截面的个体分析表明,人口老龄化对经济增长的影响地区差异显著。因此,正确认识和全面把握人口老龄化影响我国经济增长的门槛效应以及时间和空间差异,强化人口老龄化对经济增长的正向作用并弱化其负面影响,对我国人口老龄化政策的制定和经济的稳健、可持续增长具有积极的现实价值。
This paper uses the balance panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2001to 2015, constructs a panel smooth transition regression model and makes an empirical test of the threshold characteristics,dynamic changes and regional differences of China's economic growth affected by population aging.The results show that the impact of population aging on economic growth presents a non-linear and significant threshold characteristics.Based on the time-series analysis of longitudinal section shows that the positive effect of population aging on economic growth presents the trend of first decreasing and then increasing.Based on the individual analysis from crosssection shows that the impact of population aging on economic growth has significant regional differences.Therefore,it is necessary to correctly understand and comprehensively grasp the threshold effect and the time and space difference of population aging affecting China's economic growth,strengthen the positive effects of population aging on economic growth and weaken its adverse effects.It has positive and realistic value to the formulation of the countermeasures for the aging of the population and the steady and sustainable growth of the economy.
作者
齐红倩
闫海春
Qi Hongqian;Yan Haichun(Center for Quantitative Economic of Jilin University;Business School of Jilin University)
出处
《经济评论》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第6期28-40,共13页
Economic Review
基金
2016年度教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目"新常态下促进经济稳定增长的要素配置与产业升级政策研究"(项目编号:16JJD790015)
国家社科基金重大项目"十三五时期环境治理与经济发展方式转变相互协调机制研究"(项目编号:15ZDA015)的资助
关键词
人口老龄化
PSTR模型
时空特征
经济增长
Population Aging
PSTR model
Time-Space Characteristics
Economic Growth
