摘要
目的对周口市传染病自动预警信息系统运行10年效果进行分析,探讨该系统运行功效,为提高传染病自动预警能力及效率提供依据。方法采用描述流行病学方法对相关资料进行分析,用统计学方法对相关数据进行统计分析。结果 2008-2017年,周口市收到该系统发出预警信号共16 851条,涉及病种34种。初步判断疑似事件6起,比例为0.04%。现场调查确认暴发4起,预警信号阳性率为0.02%。结论传染病自动预警信息系统的灵敏度高但特异度低。假阳性预警信号较多,在实际应用中存在一定局限性,需要由单纯的"时间系列模型"向复合的"时空人群模型"转变。
Objective This paper analyzes the effect of the automatic warning system in zhoukou for 10 years, and discusses the function of the system, and provides the basis for improving the automatic warning ability and efficiency of infectious diseases. Methods The related data were analyzed by descriptive epidemiology method, and statistical analysis was made by statistical methods. Results From 2008 to 2017, Received 16 851 warning signals from the system in Zhoukou, involving 34 diseases. A preliminary estimate of 6 suspected incidents occurred, with a proportion of 0.04 %.Field investigation confirmed the outbreak 4, the positive rate of early warning signal is 0.02 %. Conclusions The automatic warning information system has high sensitivity but low specificity. There are many false positive warning signals, and there are some limitations in practical application, which need to be transformed from the simple "time series model" to the complex "space-time crowd model".
作者
周玉蕾
ZHOU Yulei(Zhoukou Center for Diseases Control and Prevention,Zhoukou,Henan 466002)
出处
《河南预防医学杂志》
2019年第1期15-18,共4页
Henan Journal of Preventive Medicine
关键词
传染病
自动预警
信息系统
时间系列模型
时空人群模型
Infectious diseases
Automatic warning
Information systems
Time series model
Spatiotemporal population model
