摘要
本文创新性地提出构造能源消费结构变化指数,采用VAR模型、脉冲响应与方差分解等方法,分析我国能源消费增长率、能源消费结构、金融发展以及产业结构之间的动态关联。本文认为,金融发展通过三种机制影响能源消费:一是降低生产信贷成本,间接通过供给端拉动消费端;二是发挥资源分配功能优化能源生产结构,间接推进能源消费结构升级;三是降低消费信贷成本,直接提升能源消费需求。量化分析结果表明:金融对能源消费总量增长率的影响持续为正,在第三期达到最大。金融可以通过资金配置,促进能源消费结构优化,促进作用在第二期达到最大。滞后期主要是由于传导时间所导致。其中,消费性贷款的传导作用更快,而生产性贷款的传导作用较慢。
Though creating energy consumption structural change index, a VAR model is constructed to measure the dynamic correlation between energy consumption growth rate, energy consumption structure, financial development and industrial structure, with the method of Impulse Response and Variance Analysis. This paper argues that the financial development can impact energy supply through the loans both for production and consumption. Energy supply can further impact energy consumption. The results of quantitative analyses show that the influence of financial development on the growth rate of energy consumption is positive, and the influence reaches the maximum in the third period. Financial development can optimize energy consumption structure through funds allocation, and the influence reaches the maximum in the second period. The lag time is mainly due to time delay, in which the conduction of loans for consumption is faster, and the conduction of loans for production is slower.
出处
《价格理论与实践》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第11期107-110,共4页
Price:Theory & Practice
基金
国家社会科学基金“新形势下防范金融风险研究”(08BJY155)
关键词
金融发展
能源消费增长率
能源消费结构变化指数
Financial development
Energy Consumption Growth Rate
Energy Consumption Structure Change Index
