摘要
文章基于增加值贸易视角分析中美贸易摩擦的经济影响,分析方法创新在于GTAP模拟结果引入了增加值分解。模拟结果显示,以出口总值衡量的贸易影响极大地高估了中国出口损失,以出口增加值衡量的中国出口受损程度要小于美国,这主要源于中国出口被征税行业出口总值下降中包含更多的国外增加值,因此美国对自中国进口产品加征关税的“价值链直接效应”更突显,日韩作为中国被征税行业加工生产重要中间品供应国,在此次贸易摩擦中受损严重。美国对自中国进口产品加征关税,尽管中国向美国直接出口减少了,但通过第三方间接出口到美国的商品却有所增加。从世界其他国家出口总值分解来看,中美贸易摩擦主要抑制了以生产国际分割为特征的产品贸易规模,影响到全球价值链的正常发展。
This paper analyzes the economic impact of Sino-US trade frictions from the perspective of trade in value-added by introducing the decomposition of value-added in WWZ(2015)into the simulation results of GTAP.The results show that China's export losses are greatly overestimated by trade impact which is measured by the gross export value and China's export losses measured by export value added is smaller than that of the United States.This is mainly due to more foreign value added in the decline of the total value of China's export tax industry.Therefore,the "direct effect in global value chains"from the United States'tariffs on imports from China is more obvious.Japan and South Korea will suffer a serious impact in this trade friction.Although the United States imposes tariffs on imports from China,China's indirect exports to the United States through the third parties increase.The Sino-US trade frictions mainly inhibit the scale of trade in the products characterized with the deep international division of production and affect the normal development of global value chains.
作者
肖志敏
冯晟昊
XIAO Zhi-min;FENG Sheng-hao
出处
《国际经贸探索》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第1期55-69,共15页
International Economics and Trade Research
