摘要
针对上市公司特别处理(简称ST)政策,基于公司连续2年净利润为负的特征,利用生存分析方法,建立Aalen可加模型预测上市公司财务困境。采用中国制造业公司自上市日起到2015年的财务数据进行实证分析,讨论上市公司违约概率与财务预警指标间的关系。研究结果表明,总资产规模、营业利润率、运营资金/资产总金额以及留存收益/资产总金额4个指标均影响上市公司陷入财务困境的强度;除了总资产规模对其影响是常数外,其他3个指标对其影响均具有时变性;且总资产规模越大,该公司陷入财务困境的可能性越小。
Based on the characteristics of the negative net profit in the company for two consecutive years in view of the policy on the special treatment(ST),in this paper,an Aalen add-on model was established to predict the financial distress of the listed companies using the survival analysis method.An empirical analysis was conducted to discuss the relationship between the default probability of listed companies and financial early warning indicators using the financial data of the China’s manufacturing companies from it’s listing date up to 2015.The results show that regardless of the number of samples,the four important factors impacting the intensity of listing companies in financial distress are total asset size,operating profit rate,operating capital/total assets and retained earnings/total assets.In addition to the fact that the total asset size is constant,the other three indicators have the time-varying impact.And the larger the asset size,the less possibility the company is in financial distress.
作者
张茂军
刘庆华
朱宁
ZHANG Maojun;LIU Qinghua;ZHU Ning(School of Mathematics and Computing Science,Gumn University of Electronic Technology,Guilin 541004,Guangxi,China)
出处
《系统管理学报》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第1期98-107,共10页
Journal of Systems & Management
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71461005)
桂林电子科技大学研究生创新项目(GDYCSZ201471
2016YJCX48)
关键词
财务困境
违约概率
Aalen可加模型
时变性
financial distress
default probability
Aalen additive model
time invariance
