摘要
根据灰色系统理论,建立了井壁附加应变的GM(1,1)预测模型,结合某矿实际监测数据对井壁附加应变进行了预测,分析了模型精度,比较了短期预测与长期预测结果,确定了可靠的预测时间长度,比较了等维递补模型与传统模型,发现等维递补可有效提高预测精度。
Based on the grey system theory, the GM(1,1) prediction model for the additional strain of shaft lining is established. Combined with the actual monitoring data of a mine, the additional strain of shaft lining is predicted. The accuracy of the model is analyzed,and short term and long term prediction results are also contrasted. Then the reliable prediction time is determined. After comparing with the traditional model,it is found that the metabolic model can effectively improve the prediction accuracy.
作者
尹磊建
赵光思
YIN Lei-jian;ZHAO Guang-si(State Key Laboratory for Geomechanics and Deep Underground Engineering,China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221116,China)
出处
《煤炭技术》
CAS
2019年第1期48-51,共4页
Coal Technology
基金
973计划课题(2012CB026103)
111引智计划(B14021)
国家自然科学基金资助项目(41271096
51104146)
优秀国家重点实验室研究项目(51323004)
关键词
灰色系统理论
井壁
附加应变
预测研究
grey system theory
shaft lining
additional strain
prediction
