摘要
猪肉价格突变对生猪产业发展与居民消费水平造成巨大影响。为了了解疫情对猪肉价格突变的影响及冲击效应,笔者基于2008年1月份—2015年4月份猪肉相关价格月度数据与疫情数据,利用价格变点PPM模型识别猪肉零售价格的突变点,并测算猪肉零售价格、疫情程度、饲料价格、生猪成本价等相关变量的突变点后验概率与后验均值。在此基础上,采用分位数回归模型剖析疫情程度对猪肉价格突变的影响,探讨疫情对猪肉零售价格波动的作用机理与作用程度。结果表明:猪肉零售价格波动具有突变性特征,样本期内猪肉零售价格共发生8次突变,其中3次上升突变,5次下降突变;猪病疫情对猪肉零售价格的影响随猪肉产业链传递较为顺畅,能够由产业链上游传递至产业链下游,对市场产生较大冲击;疫情对猪肉价格波动的影响具有门限效应,对猪肉价格波动的影响呈现"倒U型"特征。因此,针对价格异常波动现象,政府应甄别导致价格波动的具体因素,实施有针对性的调控措施,防止价格波动放大效应的出现。
Pork price mutation poses a great impact on residents’ consumption and pig industry development. This paper based on monthly data of pork price and related epidemic data in January 2008 to April 2015,using Product Partition Model to identify the abrupt change point of the retail prices,through comparing posterior probability and posterior mean of pork retail price,epidemic degree,fodder prices and cost price. Moreover,quintile regression model is recruited to study the effect of external shocks on pork retail price fluctuation mechanism and function. The results showa total of eight pork retail price mutations occurred at the sample period,three times for rising mutations,five times by descending mutation. Pork price mutations are the joint outcome of external shocks and market factors. Pork retail prices mutations vary in different stages of the reasons. The relationships between epidemic outbreak and pork price fluctuation have"inverted U"characteristics. Therefore,the government should identify factors leading to price fluctuations,to implement targeted measures to prevent the occurrence of price volatility amplification effect.
作者
苗珊珊
MIAO Shanshan(Suzhong Development Research Institute,Yangzhou University,Yangzhou 225009,China)
出处
《黑龙江畜牧兽医》
CAS
北大核心
2019年第2期6-11,177,共7页
Heilongjiang Animal Science And veterinary Medicine
基金
国家自然科学基金项目"产业链升级背景下食品安全事件对生鲜农产品的价格冲击效应及非对称传递机制研究"(71503071)
河南省高等学校哲学社会科学研究优秀学者资助项目(2017-YXXZ-03)
河南省哲学社会科学规划项目(2016BJJ018)
河南省政府招标课题(2017B218)
关键词
疫情
猪肉价格
价格突变
冲击效应
突变概率
后验均值
门限值
epidemic situation
pork price
price mutation
impulse effects
mutation probability
posterior mean
threshold value
