摘要
目的探讨WSARE 3. 0模型在传染病暴发早期预警中的应用价值。方法运用WSARE 3. 0预警模型对2017年成都市新都区手足口病疫情进行预警。结果 WSARE 3. 0软件共探测到2017年新都区的13个镇(街道)出现了具有统计学意义的手足口病预警信号5次(P <0. 05),其中1月1次,4月2次,6月1次,10月1次,其中2次为双特征变量,3次为单特征变量。结论 WSARE模型对于多元分类资料的异常情况探测要优于单因素方法,但在应用该方法时,要结合数据本身的实际情况及特征,以便能更好的、准确的探测到疫情。
Objective To explore the application value of WSARE 3. 0 model in early warning of infectious disease outbreak. Methods WSARE 3. 0 early warning model was used to predict the epidemic situation of hand-foot-mouth disease in Xindu district of Chengdu in 2017. Results WSARE 3. 0 software detected 5 times of statistically significant early warning signals of hand-foot-mouth disease( P < 0. 05) showed in 13 towns(streets) in Xindu district in 2017,including 1 time in January,2 times in April,1 time in June,1 time in October,of which 2 times were double characteristic variables and 3 times were single characteristic variables.Conclusion WSARE model is superior to univariate method in detecting abnormal situation of multivariate classification data. However, the WSARE model should be combined with the actual situation and characteristics of the data for better and accurate detection of the epidemic situation.
作者
刘媞
兰亚佳
LIU Ti;LAN Yajia(Xindu District Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Chengdu 610500,Sichuan Province,China;West China School of Public Health,Sichuan University,Chengdu 610041,Sichuan Province,China)
出处
《预防医学情报杂志》
CAS
2019年第2期131-135,共5页
Journal of Preventive Medicine Information
关键词
WSARE
手足口病
早期预警
WSARE
hand -foot -mouth disease
early warning
