摘要
本文基于我国30个省份2005—2016年的面板数据,采用固定效应两阶段最小二乘法(FE2SLS)和空间杜宾模型实证检验金融杠杆对系统性金融风险水平的作用。研究发现:(1)金融杠杆与系统性风险水平呈现U型关系,金融部门与实体经济发展的不适配会通过资本配置扭曲导致系统性风险水平增加;(2)各类过度金融化指标均显著为正,表明不合理的金融杠杆水平将推升系统性金融风险;(3)在不同空间距离权重下,金融杠杆对系统性风险基本呈现显著的负向直接效应,但东部金融杠杆已越过产生风险集聚效应的拐点,且各地区均呈现显著空间溢出效应。因此,维持合理的金融杠杆水平,分地区实施差异性金融政策,对于防范系统性金融风险具有重要意义。
Based on panel data from 30 provinces over the year of 2005 to 2016,this paper analyzes the effects of financial leverage on systemic financial risk by using FE2SLS estimation and Spatial Durbin Model.The empirical analysis yields the following results:(1)there is an U-shaped relationship between financial leverage and systemic risk level,the inadequacy of financial sector and real economy will lead to increasing systemic risk level via capital allocation distortion;(2)all types of over-fmancialization indicators are significantly positive,indicating that unreasonable financial leverage level would boost systemic financial risk;(3)under different spatial distance weights,financial leverage basically exerts significant negative direct effect on systemic risk,except for the eastern region,whose financial system has crossed the inflection point and produce risk agglomeration effect,and each region presents significant spatial spillover effect.Therefore,maintaining reasonable financial leverage level and implementing differentiated financial policies by region,is of great significance for preventing systemic financial risks.
出处
《财经科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第1期1-15,共15页
Finance & Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金创新群体项目"金融创新与风险管理"(71521061)
关键词
金融杠杆
系统性金融风险
U型关系
空间溢出
Financial Leverage
Systemic Financial Risk
U-shaped Relationship
Spatial Spillover
