摘要
根据近年收集、整理的历史文献冷暖记载及过去有关研究结果 ,对中国东部地区过去 2 0 0 0年冬半年的温度状况进行了定量推断 ,重建了中国东部地区过去 2 0 0 0年分辨率为1 0～ 3 0年的冬半年温度距平变化序列 ,并分析了中国东部过去 2 0 0 0年的冷暖变化阶段与变化幅度。结果发现 :在过去 2 0 0 0年中 ,中国东部冬半年温度高于 1 95 1～ 1 980年平均值且持续时间超过百年的暖期有 4个 ,其中最暖的 3 0年出现在 1 2 3 0’s～ 1 2 5 0’s(较 1 95 1～ 1 980年高 0 .9℃ ) ;低于 1 95 1～ 1 980年平均值且持续时间超过百年的冷期有 3个 ,其中最冷的 3 0年出现在1 6 5 0’s～ 1 6 70’s(较 1 95 1～ 1 980年低 1 .1℃ )。在冷暖期之间相互转换的过程中 ,冬半年温度一般都出现 1℃左右的升、降温 ;在冷暖期内 ,一些幅度较大的升、降温也与之相仿 ;在相邻的两个 3 0年中 ,温度变化幅度达 0 .5℃以上的有 1 9次之多。对比过去 2 0 0 0年中的冷暖交替变化还可以看出 :2 0世纪回暖时的升温幅度与过去 2 0 0 0年中的其他回暖过程所出现的幅度相似 ,特别是与 5世纪末至 6世纪的回暖极为相似 ;而在当前温暖阶段中 ,1 981～ 1 999年较 1 95 1～ 1 980年升高了 0 .5℃ ,不但使其接近过去 2 0 0 0年中的最暖 3 0年 ,而?
As one of the core objectives of PAGES, the research on climatic changes of past 2?000 years is highlighted. It is also an important research field for Chinese participation in global change studies. In this paper, the quantitative sequence of the winter half year temperature in eastern China over the past 2?000 years in 10～30 years resolution is reconstructed by phenomena records and the other proxy data with cold/warm description extracted from Chinese historical documents, and some cold/warm times series in China published in last couple of decades, and the instrumental data from 1951～2000. The variability and amplitudes of cold warm changes in eastern China during the past 2?000 years are discussed as well. Analyses about the reconstructed sequences indicate that: 1) from the beginning of Christian era, climate decreased with the cooling rate of 0.20℃/10 2a, and around 500A.D. temperature declined to the lowest of this epoch, about 1℃ lower than that of 1951～1980A.D.; 2) then temperature entered abruptly one warm epoch of 570's～1310's with the warming of 0.04℃ /10 2a. The 30 year mean temperatures of warm peaks were about 0.3°～0.5℃ higher than that of 1951～1980A.D. with the maximum of over 0.7°～1.0℃; 3) after 1320's, the temperature descended rapidly at the decreasing rate of 0.10℃ /10 2a. The 30 year mean temperatures of the four cold troughs were 0.6°～0.9℃ lower than that of 1951～1980 with the minimal of 1.1℃; 4) since then, temperature has been rising rapidly and entered the warm epoch of the 20th century. For the most recent two decades, temperature increases dramatically. And the mean temperature from 1981 to 1999 is 0.5℃ higher than that from 1951 to 1980; and 5) the transition between cold period and warm period are usually characterized by rapidity over the past 2?000 years.
出处
《第四纪研究》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2002年第2期166-173,共8页
Quaternary Sciences
基金
中国科学院知识创新工程项目(批准号:KZCX2-314)
中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所创新前沿领域项目(批准号:CXIOG-A00-02)资助
关键词
过去2000年
中国东部
冬半年温度
past 2000 years
eastern China
winter-half-year temperature
