摘要
目的:探讨消化性溃疡发病与气象因子的关系 方法:统计1992/1997年南宁市17家医院消化内镜检查的104121例胃镜资料,检出消化性溃疡24252例。计算出消化性溃疡逐月逐句逐候的内镜检出率,再将其与南宁同期四季气象进行相关分析,与同期7类气象因子进行逐月、逐旬、逐候多元回归相关分析,根据前一月、旬、候的气象因子建立预报模型,并将实测值与预报值进行比较验证。 结果:在6a中11mo-4mo消化性溃疡月平均检出率24.2％-28.8％,峰值在1mo(28.8％),5mo-10mo的月平均检出率为20.0％-22.6％,谷值在6mo(20.0％),检出率冬季>春季>夏秋季(p<0.005)。检出率与同期月、旬、候平均气温值的相关系数分别为-0.8704,-0.6624,-0.5384,p值均<0.01;与平均最高气温值的相关系数分别为-0.8000,-0.6470,-0.5167,p值均<0.01;与平均最低气温值的相关系数分别为-0.8091,-0.6617,-0.5384,P值均<0.01;与平均露点温度的相关系数分别为-0.7812,-0.6246,-0.4936,p值均<0.01;与同期月、旬、候平均气压值的相关系数分别为0.7320,0.5777,0.4579,p值均<0.01。前一月、旬、候的平均气温值、平均最高气温值、平均最低气温值、平均气压值、平均露点温度值,对消化性溃疡发病预报价值大,实测值和预报值相符率分别为71.8％,67.9％,66.6％。
AIM: To probe into the relationship between the onset of peptic ulcer (PU) and meteorological factors.METHODS: From 17 hospitals in Nanning city from 1992 to 1997, 24252 cases of peptic ulcer were collected in 104121 samples for gastrofibroscopic examination. The detectable rate of PU (DRPU) and the value of seven meteorological factors (VMF)per month, every ten days and every five days in the same period were: calculated, then regression correlation analysis was made. A model of forecast of VMF was established. The real value was compared with the forecast value.RESULTS:Over the six year period, 24.2%-28.8% of DRPU were detected from November to next April. The peak value was found in January (28. 8%). The average detection rate of DRPU from May to October ranged from 20.0% to 22.6%. The low peak value was found in June (20.0%). The DRPU decreased during winter, spring and summer, and decreased progressively in autumn (P<0. 005). There existed a negative correlation between DRPU and the average value of air temperature, and a positive correlation in the average value of air pressure per month, every ten days and every five days of the same period (P <0.01). The consistency rates of the real value and the forecast value were 71. 8%, 67. 9% and 66. 6%, respectively.CONCLUSIONS: There existed a close correlation between DRPU and VMF (air temperature, air pressure and dew point) of the same period. When the meteorological factors changed heavily, the human body produces a serial stress action. The attack of PU can be predicted according to meteorological factors in long and medial term.
出处
《世界华人消化杂志》
CAS
2002年第1期48-52,共5页
World Chinese Journal of Digestology
基金
广西科学研究与技术开发计划项目基金资助
No.9920025
