摘要
本文利用灰色系统理论中数列预测的GM(1.1)模型,对华北地区地震活动第四活跃期的Ms≥7.0的地震进行了预测,结果表明,华北地区下一次Ms≥7.0的地震,时间约在2007年左右,其震级约为7.5级。上述方法和结果可以作为中长期地震预测工作的参考。
In this paper, earthquakes with Ms≥7 in the 4th active period in North China arc predicted by using the GM(1,1) model of the digit-column prediction of the grey system theory, and the result shows that there will occur an earthquake with nearly Ms 7.5 in about 2007. The above method and results can be regarded as a reference for mid-long-term earthquake prediction.
出处
《西北大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
1991年第3期43-46,共4页
Journal of Northwest University（Natural Science Edition）
关键词
灰色系统理论
地震预报
数列预测
The grey system theory
Series forecasting
GM(1,1) model
Acumulated generating operation
Grey differential equation
Earthquake prediction
