摘要
目的 :预测 2 0 0 5年全国各省、市、区CT配置数量 ,协助国家制定大型医用设备配置规划。方法 :采用后验差比值法对预测模型进行检验 ,然后利用该模型进行 2 0 0 5年全国各省、市、区CT配置数量的预测并依据对CT使用效率的评价研究结果 ,提出 2 0 0 5年全国CT配置数量规划建议。结果 :模型预测到 2 0 0 5年全国CT配置总量是 5 72 3台 ,使用效率调整系数对预测值进行调整后得到全国 2 0 0 5年CT配置量为 4 884台 ,比1 999年有 1 1 95台的增长。结论 :全国CT配置数量在“十五”期间应当有所增加 。
The Objectives of this paper are to forecast the CT numbers in the 31 provinces in China and provide the local government to set up CT planning. Method The econometrics model was used to forecast the number of CT scanners by 2005 after the testing of its validity.The planned number of CT scanners was drawn up with the study on the technical efficiency analysis. Results The number of CT scanners projected by 2005 Was 5723 and the adjusted number Was 4884, it was a growth of 1195 compared with the year of 1999. Conclusions The number of CT scanners will continue to grow in the tenth five-year planning period. The econometrics model can be used for forecasting and planning.
出处
《中国卫生资源》
2002年第4期167-170,共4页
Chinese Health Resources
基金
WHO卫生改革项目的资助
