摘要
目前对于水库诱发地震机理的认识仍存在很多盲区,水库地震事件不断引发社会的广泛争议。我国西部水能资源的大力开发面临一定水库诱发地震风险,需要对此有更为科学的认识和判断。本文介绍了利用现代监测手段,结合地球物理学、地质学、地震学、岩石力学等相关学科开展水库诱发地震研究的最新成果。认为深入开展水库地震监测和监测资料分析,以科学地探索水库诱震机理,提炼水库诱震因素,揭示水库地震规律以及预测和识别水库诱发地震,为指导水库正确运行和灾后救援提供决策依据,是水电工程建设中急需开展的攻关课题。
Reservoir--Induced Seismicity （ RIS ） refers to seismic activity （ i. e. , earthquakes } that occurs in the vicinity of artificial water reservoirs as a consequence of impoundment. RIS often is characterized as repeatable, clustered, shallow, and as having abundant high-frequency ground mo- tion. A low magnitude RIS earthquake can cause major damage to not only human-made structures （e. g. , buildings and equipment）, but may also cause geological disasters such as landslides and surges. Knowledge of RIS is immature because documented cases of RIS are limited in number and complex in nature. In the absence of well documented cases, seismic events occurring near a reser- voir are often attributed to the impoundment of water. In numerous parts of the world today,in- eluding some of the most highly developed countries, many dam designers and operators tend to close their eyes to the engineering problems posed by RIS. There are some kinds of defensive ar- guments including： （1） no convincing correlation has yet been demonstrated between earthquakes and reservoirs;（2 ） since the natural seismicity at a given site is low, the danger of reservoir-in- duced events is therefore also low ; （ 3 ） the geology at a given site is different from that at localities where major reservoir-induced events have occurred; （4） only three or four out of some 11,000 large dams worldwide have experienced significant induced earthquakes, and one should, there- fore,not worry about a given site;and（5） no dam has yet failed disastrously because of a reser- voir-induced earthquake so the danger is thus grossly exaggerated. However, detractors of RIS are essentially evading the primary issues：Virtually every careful study has concluded that there is in- deed a cause-and-effect relationship between some reservoirs and some earthquakes. Two dams （Koyna, India, and Hsinfengkiang, China ） have, in fact, come uncomfortably close to disastrous failure during such events. Development of hydropower resources in southwestern China is one of the basic state policies;however, high dams built in high intensity areas may be accompanied by some risk of RIS. Therefore, the possibility of RIS and tendency of a reservoir to cause earth- quakes needs to be scientifically investigated so that capacity for disaster prevention and mitigation can improve. At present, earthquake monitoring near reservoirs and related research are of great significance. Development of hydropower resources in southwestern China urgently needs to build an earthquake monitoring system associated with reservoirs and conduct in-depth studies of the monitoring data. Comprehensive analysis of reservoir seismic monitoring data is an important way to reveal the mechanism（s） of RIS and determine the factor（s） that induced an earthquake. This type of research is of great significance for scientifically forecasting earthquakes;and is also the foundation for proper identification of RIS and scientific guidance to aid in disaster relief. Therefore, it is urgent and essential to build up seismic monitoring systems for reservoirs using modern methods. It is also important to investigate the relationship among monitoring data, seis- mic activity, geological structure and properties of rock to reveal the mechanism（s） of RIS and the factor（s} related to reservoir induced earthquakes. The research results will be helpful in predicting the possibility of RIS, understanding the behavior of induced earthquakes, and preparing for disaster relief.
出处
《地震工程学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第2期380-386,412,共8页
China Earthquake Engineering Journal
基金
国家科技支撑计划(2012BAK10B07)
能源工程安全与灾害力学教育部重点实验室开放基金(2013KF05)
2013地震灾害重建应急项目(2013scu1906)
关键词
水库诱发地震
地震监测
诱震机理
地震预测
reservoir induced seismicity
reservoir seismicity monitoring
earthquake mechanisms
earthquake prediction
