摘要
本文基于区域全面经济伙伴关系(RCEP)框架下针对东盟内部成员间的自由贸易协定以及东盟与外部6个成员间已签署的5个"东盟+1"自由贸易协定,从关税减让、服务贸易自由化程度两个方面,分析了RCEP区域整合所面临的困境与挑战;并运用GTAP模型预测分析了RCEP的建立对中国经济、贸易以及各产业可能产生的影响。GTAP模型的类比结果显示,总体而言,RCEP的成功整合将有力推动中国对外贸易的成长,提高中国实际GDP的增长速度与福利水平,但对不同产业的影响程度有明显区别。最后针对中国参与RCEP整合在路径选择、谈判议题、产业冲击等方面提出了相应的战略对策。
Based on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership （RCEP） framework, this paper analyzes the difficulties and challenges faced by RCEP regional integration from two aspects., tariff concession and service trade liberalization degree, mainly focusing on the FTAs among ASEAN members and five ＂ASEAN＋I＂ FTAs signed by ASEAN and six other external members. Then, by using GTAP model, this paper makes simulation forecast of the impact of RCEP integration on China＇s economy, trade and industries. The result shows that, in general, the integration of RCEP will strongly promote the growth of China＇s foreign trade, improve China＇s real GDP growth and welfare level, however, the impact on different industries are different. Finally, in view of China＇s participation in the RCEP integration, this paper delivers a set of recommendations to the government for issues in the path selection, negotiation topics and industry impact, etc.
出处
《财贸经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第8期85-93,共9页
Finance & Trade Economics
