摘要
协调国际、国内两个市场,对中国经济增长重心的转变具有重要意义,国内需求在支撑产业长期发展中的作用应得到增强。加工贸易为主的出口结构使得内贸与外贸的主要承担者存在"错位",出口调整更多地体现在制造业上。制造企业因外需萎缩而转向"内销"时,当地市场上的产需匹配度及消费饱和度会直接影响这一过程;进一步地,商品在销往国内的外地市场时,市场分割会阻碍跨地区流转,而批发环节的组织化经营网络能够形成规模经济并降低进入外地市场的成本。本文对2005—2011年多类商品构成的省级面板数据进行动态计量分析,结果验证了市场分割与批发贸易的影响作用;同时,基于省域范围计算的产需匹配及消费饱和程度指标在回归结果中显著,表明出口调整更多地局限于当地市场。由此,未来应当把调整制造业结构与引导商贸服务业发展相结合,发挥全国大市场的产需匹配作用;同时,要以市场手段引导存量盘活,使企业经济行为的驱动力更多地由政策激励转变为消费需求。
Coordination of foreign and domestic markets is of considerable importance for China to switch the key of economic growth, and the role of domestic demand in supporting long-term development of the industry should be enhanced. As the main bearers of foreign trade and domestic trade are different, which is resulted from the processing-trade dominated export structure, it is the manufacturing industry that has to implement the change of export propensity. When manufacturers turn to ＂domestic＂ due to the shrinkage of external demand, the fitness of production and demand, and consumption saturation level of the local market will have a direct impact. Further, when products are to be sold in other places of the country, market segmentation will hinder trans-regional distribution, while the network of organized wholesalers, which yields economies of scale, is able to reduce the cost of market entering. Using provincial panel data consisted by various product categories from 2005 to 2011, dynamic econometric analysis convinced the influence of market segmentation and wholesale trade. And it also shows that manufacturers are mainly confined in local market, since the indicators of consumption saturation and the fitness between production and demand calculated at province level are significant in the regressions. These conclusions suggest that the adjustment of manufacturing structure should be combined with the development of distribution industry of service sector, enhancing the role of big domestic market in matching production and demand; At the same time, market mechanism should be used in utilizing remnant manufacturing capacity, so that the driving force of companies＇ behavior can be changed from government policy to consumers＇ demand.
出处
《中国工业经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第8期70-83,共14页
China Industrial Economics
基金
中国社会科学院财经战略研究院青年研究基金项目"零售业深度调整与扩大内需协同机制研究"(批准号14NAES-Y5)
国家社会科学基金青年项目"批发产业转型与内外贸联动发展政策协调研究"(批准号13CJY097)
中国社会科学院创新工程研究项目"完善市场体系与流通体制改革"(批准号14NAES06)
关键词
出口倾向
产需匹配
市场分割
批发与零售业
动态面板数据
export propensity
matching production with demand
market segmentation
wholesale and retail
dynamic panel data
