摘要
目的探讨累积和控制图模型(cumulative sum control chart,CUSUM)在流行性腮腺炎早期预警中的应用价值,为流行性腮腺炎的应急防制提供科学依据,也为其他传染病突发公共卫生事件的预警研究提供参考和借鉴。方法以江苏省各区县每日发病数为基础,从2012年1月1日起以CUSUM模型进行前瞻性试验,用灵敏度、特异度、及时性等3个指标对预警结果进行评价,并比较CUSUM模型预警与国家传染病自动预警系统(CIDARS)之间的优劣。结果应用CUSUM模型进行预警分析全年共产生1688条预警信号,比自动预警系统产生的信号数少35.30%。CUSUM模型预警灵敏度为100%、特异度为95.84%,均高于自动预警系统(χ2=6.087,P=0.0136;χ2=602.48,P<0.0001);CUSUM模型预警及时性的中位数为3.5天,自动预警系统为6天,两者无统计学差异(Z=0.9173,P=0.3590)。结论江苏省腮腺炎疫情数据CUSUM模型预警分析效果优于自动预警系统,且有进一步提高的空间。
Objective To investigate the application of cumulative sum control chart model （CUSUM） in early warning to the mumps outbreaks, so as to provide a scientific basis for the emergency prevention and control of mumps, and also provide references to early warning research of other infectious diseases. Methods A prospective outbreak detecting trial with CUSUM was conducted based on the daily incidence of each district and county in 2012,in Jiangsu province. The detected results of CUSUM were evaluated and compared to results of the ＂China Infectious Diseases Automated Alert and Response System （ CI- DARS）＂ with sensitivity, specificity and timeliness. Results A total of 1688 warning signals were produced by CUSUM throughout 2012, and 35.30% less than the signals generated by CIDARS. The warning sensitivity and specificity of CUSUM were 100% and 95.84% ,respectively,and both of them were higher than those of CIDARS （χ^2 =6. 087 ,P =0. 0136 and χ^2 = 602. 48, P 〈 0. 0001, respectively）. While, the median of timeless of CUSUM was 3.6 days, compared to 6 days of CIDARS, there was no statistically significant difference between them （ Z = 0. 9173, P = 0. 3590 ）. Conclusion In this study, the early warning capability of CUSUM for mumps epidemic in Jiangsu province was much more better than that of CIDARS. Moreover, it can be further improved significantly.
出处
《中国卫生统计》
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第4期563-566,共4页
Chinese Journal of Health Statistics
基金
江苏省科教兴卫工程(ZX201109
RC2011085)
江苏省预防医学科研项目(YZ201020)
