摘要
在经济学理论中,钱纳里标准结构较早总结了投资与消费比例关系的经验规律。有关投资与消费最优结构理论研究的代表性成果主要有:索洛模型;菲尔普斯黄金律;拉姆齐模型;Abel等的AMSZ准则。一个新的思路是构建基于资本和劳动边际收益率的分析模型,用以研究投资与消费最优比例问题。现实中,经济更多地处于失衡状态,引申出来的一个问题是,投资与消费若处于一个合理区间即是可接受的。分析表明,中国目前的投资与消费结构偏离了合理区间,投资率的合理区间应在[35%,40%]左右,而居民消费率的合理区间应在[45%,55%]左右。
Of the economic theory, Chenery＇s standard structure described the empirical laws about in- vestment and consumption relationship. The representative theories of the optimal structure for investment and consumption include： Solow model, Phelps golden law, Ramsey model, and AMSZ standard of Abel et al. To explore the optimal proportion for investment and consumption, a model is established based on the marginal rate of returns on capital and labor. In fact, the economy is usually in a state of non - equilibrium and so it should be acceptable that the proportion of investment and consumption is in a reasonable range. This study shows that the structure of investment and consumption in China is out of the reasonable range. Besides, the investment rate in about [ 35%, 40% ] and the resident consumption rate in about ~ 45%, 55 % ] are both acceptable.
出处
《财贸研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第2期1-6,共6页
Finance and Trade Research
基金
国家社会科学基金项目"中国实施国际比较项目(ICP)的技术难点与创新研究"(13AZD086)
教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划项目"中国CPI数据质量与偏差测度研究"(NECT-11-0029)
全国统计科学研究计划项目"政府债务统计国际标准及中国应用"(2012LZ042)
教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目"基于国际标准的政府债务统计与预警管理体系研究"(13YJA630005)的资助
关键词
投资
消费
最优结构
合理区间
investment
consumption
optimal structure
reasonable range
