摘要
在其他条件不发生大的变化的前提下,人民币在未来一段时期内仍然存在小幅度的升值空间,且波动幅度会呈现日益增大的趋势。基于套利、套汇的虚假贸易将导致大量热钱流入,外汇占款上升,基础货币被动投放,致使央行流动性管理效率大打折扣,对金融和经济平稳运行造成影响。因此,银行、外汇管理局等部门应多方联合解决虚假贸易问题,加快人民币汇率形成机制改革进程,采用新策略进一步加强央行流动性管理,降低虚假贸易对汇率和央行流动性的不利影响。
Under the premise that other conditions do not vary much, the RMB may have a little space of appreciation in the coming period and show increasing volatility trends. The sham trading based on arbitrage may lead to the inflow of more hot money, the increase of foreign exchange reserves and the passive release of monetary base, which will greatly reduce the efficiency of the central bank liquidity management and affect the smooth running of finance and economy. Therefore, banks, State Administration of Foreign Exchange （SAFE） and other institutions should strengthen cooperation to resolve the problem of sham trading： to accelerate the reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism and to further strengthen the central bank liquidity management by adopting new strategies, so as to reduce the adverse effect of sham trading on the exchange rate and the central bank liquidity.
出处
《征信》
北大核心
2014年第8期12-15,共4页
Credit Reference
关键词
虚假贸易
人民币汇率
中央银行
流动性管理
sham trading
the RMB exchange rate
the central bank
liquidity management
