摘要
目的分析传染病自动预警系统(AARS)在连云港市的应用情况,探讨系统运行功效,为提高传染病预警能力及效率提供依据。方法利用AARS的控制图法模型为平台,收集超出预警阈值时系统发出的预警信号,分析相关数据。结果 2008年4月1日至2013年12月31日,共发出预警信号3 183次;预警的病种共涉及27种传染病,其中甲类1种,乙类15种,丙类9种,非法定传染病2种,预警信号总体阳性预测值为0.50%;预警系统阳性预测值较低,不同验证标准的灵敏度差别明显。结论系统可对异常疫情发出预警信号,应根据工作开展情况不同病种调整预警阈值,合理选择现有的评价标准,建立针对评价传染病自动预警的准暴发事件标准。
Objective To analyze the result of the application on automated-alert and response sysyem （AARS）, andexplore the operation mode of infectious disease for improving the quality of the system. Methods The information ofthe signals would be sent out by the control chart model of SSRS when the data reached or went over the thresholds.Results A total of 3 183 warning messages were released by AARS of Lianyungang from 2008 to 2013. The warningmessages covered 27 infections diseases,including： classA, 1 ,elassB, 15, elassC,9,non-statutory infections disease, 2. Thepositive rate was 0. 50%. The sensitivity of the system was quite different when tested by different standards. Conclusion This system was able to send out signals when abnormal epidemic occurred. The value of the warning threshold should beadjusted according to different diseases and actual situation. The present evaluation criteria should be reasonably selected.Pre-outbreak criteria targeting this system should be established too. The proper standard available and the standard of pre-outbreak event should be selected and established which earl judge the Automatic Warning System pertinently.
出处
《公共卫生与预防医学》
2014年第4期36-38,共3页
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine
关键词
传染病
自动预警
阳性预测值
Infections disease
Automated-alert and response
Positive rate
