摘要
本文在已有研究的基础上探讨城镇化扩大内需的影响,采用省级面板数据模型分析了城镇化扩大内需的影响,进而提出相应的政策建议。实证结果显示,我国城镇化与扩大内需的之间的关系呈现出了U型结构。城镇化扩大内需的效果需要一定的经济社会条件,即区域经济发展水平、产业结构、收入水平和社会保障水平等。区域经济发展水平对内需呈现出负向影响,农民人均纯收入对内需呈现出正向影响。分区域看,东中西部地区城镇化扩大内需的效果差异较大,主要归结于区域经济发展水平、产业结构、收入水平和社会保障水平等方面。基于此,本文从建立健全覆盖城乡的社会保障体系、拓宽农民增收渠道、推动区域产业结构的优化和升级等方面提出相对应的政策建议。
This paper discusses the impact of urbanization to expand domestic demand and put forward the corresponding policy reckons, based on the previous studies, using provincial panel data model. The empirical results show that, the relstionship shows U type structure between China＇s urban and the expansion of domestic demands. The urbanization effect of expanding domestic demand needs some certain economic and social conditions, such as the level of regional economic development, industrial structure, income level and the level of social security. The influence of the level d regional economic development to domestic demands is negative, and farmers per capita net income to domestic demand is positive. The influence of urbanization to expand domestic demands in the eastern and western regions is different, mainly due to the regional economic development level, industrial structure, income level and the level of social security. Based on the research, the paper puts forward that China should establish urban and rural social security system, widen sources of income for farmers, promote the optimization and upgrade regional industrial structure.
出处
《工业技术经济》
北大核心
2014年第9期64-71,共8页
Journal of Industrial Technological Economics
基金
兵团软科学项目(项目编号:2012BB027)
兵团社科基金项目(项目编号:13YB06)
国家社科基金项目(项目编号:12CMZ047)
关键词
城镇化
内需
影响
面板数据模型
urbanization
demand
irfluence
panel data model
