摘要
根据华南(广东、广西)174个县晚稻产量及生育期资料,采用逐日气象干旱指数(DI)计算各个生育期干旱指数,建立晚稻干旱灾害评估模型并对干旱灾害时空特征进行分析。结果表明:(1)近30a(1981-2010)华南平均晚稻干旱年频率为7.1%,以轻旱为主,中旱及以上干旱基本不发生,区域平均干旱减产率为0.66%。晚稻干旱主要发生在播种-三叶期和乳熟-成熟期。(2)华南晚稻干旱频率及减产率均呈西高东低分布,干旱频率大于10%且减产率大于1%的区域主要集中在广西东北部。(3)近30a华南晚稻干旱减产率最大的6a依次为1992、1990、1989、1991、2009、2004年。区域平均看,近30a华南晚稻播种-三叶期干旱有显著减轻趋势,但乳熟-成熟期及全生育期干旱无显著变化趋势。(4)空间分布看,晚稻全生育期干旱趋于增强的站点占69%,但仅3.4%的站点增强趋势达显著水平。乳熟-成熟期干旱趋于增强的站点占94.8%,其中增强趋势显著的占36.2%,主要分布在广西大部和广东偏北地区。播种-三叶期干旱趋于减轻的站点占75.9%,其中减轻趋势显著的占16.1%,分布在广西的崇左至梧州一带。研究结果可为开展防旱减灾工作、制定气候变化适应政策和环境外交提供科学依据。
Using yield and growth period data of 174 counties in South China（Guangdong and Guangxi province）,drought index of each growth period of late rice was calculated by daily meteorological drought indicator（DI）,drought disaster evaluation model was constructed and temporal-spatial characteristics of the drought disaster was analyzed in the paper.The results showed that,（1）average drought year frequency of late rice in recent 30 years （1981-2010） in South China was 7.1％,where light drought accounts for main part,medium and above almost never.Mean yield reduction rate of drought was 0.66％.Drought disaster mainly occurs in seedling to 3-leaf stage and milk-ripe to mature stage of late rice.（2） Spatial distribution of late rice drought frequency and yield reduction rate were high in west and low in east in South China.Relative high incidence areas locate in northeast Guangxi province,where the drought frequency was above 10％ and the yield reduction rate was more than 1％.（3） The driest 6 years of late rice in recent 30 years in South China were 1992,1990,1989,1991,2009 and 2004.Considering the region as whole,statistically significant lighten trend of drought was observed in seeding to 3-leaf stage of late rice during recent 30 years,nevertheless,there was no statistically significant trend of drought was observed in the whole growth period and milk-ripe to mature stage of the late rice.（4） Stations that drought of the whole growth period of late rice tend to intensify account for 69％,among which 3.4％ stations were statistically significant （above 0.1 level）.Stations that drought of the milk-ripe to mature stage tend to intensify account for 94.8％,among which 36.2％ stations were statistically significant,located mainly in Guangxi and north Guangdong.Stations that drought of the seeding to 3-leaf stage tend to lighten account for 75.9％,among which 16.1％ stations were statistically significant,located mainly in the area from Chongzuo to Wuzhou of Guangxi province.The study provides scientific basis for drought disaster mitigation,climate change adaptation policy making and environment diplomacy.
出处
《中国农业气象》
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第4期450-456,共7页
Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology
基金
公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201106021)
国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)项目(2013CB430200(2013CB430206))
干旱气象科学研究基金项目(IAM201303)
关键词
华南
水稻
干旱灾害
评估
模型
South China
Rice
Drought disaster
Evaluation
Model
