摘要
天气雷达估测区域降水量是其应用研究的重要领域,不断研究改进雷达估测区域降水量精度和稳定度是雷达气象工作的重要目标。文章回顾了集合预报理论基础及其发展概况,总结分析集合预报方法、产品表现形式等。对前期雷达估测区域降水量的8种方法,从基本原理和特点等方面进行了系统分析。对该理论在雷达估测区域降水领域的适用性进行了分析,阐述了集合预报理论在该领域应用的概念模型,并提出了两种集成估测区域降水量的新方法,为下一步的应用研究提供了理论支撑。
Weather radar estimation for regional rainfall is an important field of its application, and to improve the accuracy and stability of regional precipitation estimation by means of radar data is an important task for meteorological radar service. The theoretical basis and development of ensemble forecasting are reviewed, and the methods and products are summarized. Previously used eight radar estimation methods for regional precipitation are systematically analyzed from the aspect of basic principles and characteristics. On this basis, the applicability of ensemble forecast theory in the field of radar estimates for regional precipitation is further discussed. A conceptual model and two methods for integrated regional precipitation estimation are proposed, which provides theoretical support for further applied research.
出处
《气象科技》
2014年第4期556-562,共7页
Meteorological Science and Technology
基金
国家水利部和国家气象局联合项目(HH-2000-4)资助
关键词
天气雷达
区域降水量
估测
集合预报
模式集成法
weather radar, regional rainfall, estimation, ensemble forecasting, mode integration method
