摘要
气候变化和碳减排对金融稳定的影响日益受到关注,但有关研究尚不多见。本文构造了工业37个二级行业能源消费与碳排放数据库,基于某国有大型商业银行的相应行业信贷质量数据,综合采用威尔森(Wilson)模型和有约束的非线性规划方法,并通过对三种减排策略比较分析得出结论:为最小化银行资产质量冲击,碳减排应先从具备较大减排弹性和较低减排成本的行业开始,在充分利用其减排空间后再按梯度依次分配给具备相对较小减排弹性、略高减排成本和较大减排空间的行业,这比"各行业同比例碳减排"策略下的银行新增信贷不良率要低2个数量级;此外,这种策略将减排集中于几个重点行业,不仅与欧盟经验相契,也与中国当前碳减排基础建设尚不完善的现实条件相符,具备较强的可操作性。在此基础上,本文从碳减排机制、减排策略以及银行审慎经营等角度提出了若干针对性的政策建议。
There is rising concern on the effect of climate change and carbon abatement on the financial stability, but the related research remains less. This paper construct the overall database on the 37 secondary industries＇ energy consumption and carbon emission, and based on the data of the quality of loans by these industries in some state-owned large commercial bank, and then synthesize the Wilson model and constrained nonlinear programming to analyze and get solution, through comparison between three different carbon abatement strategies and conclude that： to minimize the negative impact on the bank credit assets, carbon abatement should begin with the industries with larger reduction elasticity and lower reduction cost, and after making full use of these industries＇ potential other industries with relatively smaller reduction elasticity, slightly higher reduction cost and larger potential should be involved in the task gradually, the increased NPLR under this strategy would be two orders of magnitude lower than the one of ＂the Same percentage reduction in various industries＂. Additionally, this kind of strategy focus the carbon reduction on several key industries which not only is in accordance with the EU experience but also consistent with the reality of imperfection of current infrastructure in the field of carbon reduction in China, and then is practical. Finally, this paper proposed several policy suggestions on the mechanism, strategy of carbon abatement and prudential operation in banks as well.
出处
《中国工业经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第9期97-108,共12页
China Industrial Economics
关键词
金融稳定
银行资产质量
碳减排
策略比较
financial stability
bank assets quality
carbon abatement
strategies comparison
